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KBNA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
44%
AIFS
41%
EPS
32%
HRES
26%
ICON
19%
Consensus
37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 31.4¢Risks 31.45u
VS
ICONNO 68.5¢Risks 68.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +68.55u · ICON −68.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 41.1% · 2026-10-18T08:01:09+00:00AIFS Single: 41.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00AIFS Single: 41.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00AIFS Single: 41.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.1% · 2026-10-18T08:01:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00IFS HRES: 26.2% · 2026-10-18T08:01:09+00:00IFS HRES: 26.2% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00IFS HRES: 26.2% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00IFS HRES: 26.2% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00ICON: 19.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:09+00:00ICON: 19.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:00ICON: 19.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00ICON: 19.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:0010-18 08:0110-18 09:3210-18 10:17
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T08:01:09+00:0041.1%32.1%43.5%26.2%19.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:10+00:0041.1%32.1%43.5%26.2%19.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:0041.1%32.1%43.5%26.2%19.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:0041.1%32.1%43.5%26.2%19.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend56%80.0°F3.3°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 244%78.6°F5.5°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
AIFS Single41%78.2°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble32%77.5°F4.3°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES26%75.4°F6.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON19%70.9°F9.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261025-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 08:01 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗