daily prop · Boise, ID · Rockies & Intermountain · settles Fri Oct 2

Boise runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Fri Oct 2

settled · observed 81

whiplash on the tape

85°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 85°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		62¢
wn2		39¢
hres		34¢
hrrr		32¢
nbm		26¢
now		22¢
eps		19¢
rrfs		18¢
icon		16¢
ndfd		13¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KBOI-20261002-TMAX-GE85 · opened 2026-09-25T19:40:00+00:00 · settled 2026-10-07T13:27:54+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape