KBOI / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 85°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 02 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

39%

34%

19%

16%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 38.8¢Risks 38.80u

ICONNO 61.2¢Risks 61.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.20u · ICON −61.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T10:07:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-25T19:40:00+00:00	34.6%	25.2%	1.6%	43.2%	3.1%
2026-09-25T20:25:19+00:00	34.6%	25.2%	1.6%	43.2%	3.1%
2026-09-25T21:10:24+00:00	34.6%	25.2%	1.6%	43.2%	3.1%
2026-09-25T21:55:30+00:00	34.6%	25.2%	1.6%	43.2%	3.1%
2026-09-25T22:40:34+00:00	34.6%	25.2%	1.6%	43.2%	3.1%
2026-09-25T23:25:40+00:00	34.6%	25.2%	8.8%	43.2%	3.1%
2026-09-26T00:10:46+00:00	34.6%	25.2%	8.8%	43.2%	3.1%
2026-09-26T00:55:58+00:00	34.6%	25.2%	8.8%	43.2%	3.1%
2026-09-26T01:41:07+00:00	47.1%	25.2%	8.8%	43.2%	3.1%
2026-09-26T02:26:33+00:00	47.1%	25.2%	8.8%	43.2%	3.1%
2026-09-26T03:11:51+00:00	47.1%	25.2%	8.8%	43.2%	3.1%
2026-09-26T03:56:59+00:00	47.1%	25.2%	8.8%	43.2%	3.1%
2026-09-26T04:42:12+00:00	47.1%	25.2%	8.8%	43.2%	10.7%
2026-09-26T05:27:21+00:00	47.1%	25.2%	7.5%	43.2%	10.7%
2026-09-26T06:12:27+00:00	47.1%	25.2%	7.5%	43.2%	10.7%
2026-09-26T06:57:33+00:00	47.1%	25.2%	7.5%	43.2%	10.7%
2026-09-26T07:43:21+00:00	53.7%	25.2%	7.5%	41.1%	10.7%
2026-09-26T08:28:42+00:00	53.7%	25.2%	7.5%	41.1%	10.7%
2026-09-26T09:13:49+00:00	53.7%	25.2%	7.5%	41.1%	10.7%
2026-09-26T09:58:54+00:00	53.7%	25.2%	7.5%	41.1%	10.7%
2026-09-26T10:44:07+00:00	53.7%	25.2%	7.5%	41.1%	10.7%
2026-09-26T11:29:24+00:00	53.7%	28.5%	22.0%	41.1%	10.7%
2026-09-26T12:14:32+00:00	53.7%	28.5%	22.0%	41.1%	10.7%
2026-09-26T12:59:37+00:00	53.7%	28.5%	22.0%	41.1%	10.7%
2026-09-26T13:44:48+00:00	44.8%	28.5%	22.0%	41.1%	10.7%
2026-09-26T14:32:22+00:00	44.8%	28.5%	22.0%	41.1%	10.6%
2026-09-26T15:17:32+00:00	44.8%	29.3%	22.0%	41.1%	10.6%
2026-09-26T16:02:38+00:00	44.8%	29.3%	22.0%	41.1%	10.6%
2026-09-26T16:47:46+00:00	44.8%	29.3%	22.0%	41.1%	51.2%
2026-09-26T17:32:53+00:00	44.8%	29.3%	22.0%	41.1%	51.2%
2026-09-26T18:18:04+00:00	44.8%	29.3%	22.0%	41.1%	51.2%
2026-09-26T19:03:10+00:00	44.8%	29.3%	22.0%	41.1%	51.2%
2026-09-26T19:48:22+00:00	41.8%	29.3%	22.0%	55.4%	51.2%
2026-09-26T20:33:29+00:00	41.8%	29.3%	22.0%	55.4%	51.2%
2026-09-26T21:18:35+00:00	41.8%	29.3%	22.0%	55.4%	51.2%
2026-09-26T22:03:40+00:00	41.8%	29.3%	22.0%	55.4%	51.2%
2026-09-26T22:48:50+00:00	41.8%	29.3%	22.0%	55.4%	51.2%
2026-09-26T23:33:59+00:00	41.8%	29.3%	15.0%	55.4%	51.2%
2026-09-27T00:19:05+00:00	41.8%	29.3%	15.0%	55.4%	51.2%
2026-09-27T01:04:14+00:00	41.8%	29.3%	15.0%	55.4%	51.2%
2026-09-27T01:49:28+00:00	42.5%	29.3%	15.0%	55.4%	51.2%
2026-09-27T02:34:34+00:00	42.5%	29.3%	15.0%	55.4%	51.2%
2026-09-27T03:20:03+00:00	42.5%	29.3%	15.0%	55.4%	51.2%
2026-09-27T04:05:15+00:00	42.5%	29.3%	15.0%	55.4%	51.2%
2026-09-27T04:50:23+00:00	42.5%	29.3%	15.0%	55.4%	53.4%
2026-09-27T05:35:33+00:00	42.5%	29.3%	18.3%	55.4%	53.4%
2026-09-27T06:20:40+00:00	42.5%	29.3%	18.3%	55.4%	53.4%
2026-09-27T07:05:46+00:00	42.5%	29.3%	18.3%	55.4%	53.4%
2026-09-27T07:51:31+00:00	42.8%	29.3%	18.3%	65.4%	53.4%
2026-09-27T08:36:56+00:00	42.8%	29.3%	18.3%	65.4%	53.4%
2026-09-27T09:22:01+00:00	42.8%	29.3%	18.3%	65.4%	53.4%
2026-09-27T10:07:06+00:00	42.8%	29.3%	18.3%	65.4%	53.4%
2026-09-27T10:52:12+00:00	42.8%	29.3%	18.3%	65.4%	53.4%
2026-09-27T11:37:22+00:00	42.8%	40.0%	25.2%	65.4%	53.4%
2026-09-27T12:22:27+00:00	42.8%	40.0%	25.2%	65.4%	53.4%
2026-09-27T13:07:35+00:00	42.8%	40.0%	25.2%	65.4%	53.4%
2026-09-27T13:52:48+00:00	46.0%	40.0%	25.2%	65.4%	53.4%
2026-09-27T14:40:19+00:00	46.0%	40.0%	25.2%	65.4%	53.4%
2026-09-27T15:25:31+00:00	46.0%	39.5%	25.2%	65.4%	53.4%
2026-09-27T16:10:35+00:00	46.0%	39.5%	25.2%	65.4%	53.4%
2026-09-27T16:55:43+00:00	46.0%	39.5%	26.0%	65.4%	25.7%
2026-09-27T17:40:50+00:00	46.0%	39.5%	26.0%	65.4%	25.7%
2026-09-27T18:26:05+00:00	46.0%	39.5%	26.0%	65.4%	25.7%
2026-09-27T19:11:10+00:00	46.0%	39.5%	26.0%	65.4%	25.7%
2026-09-27T19:56:21+00:00	60.4%	39.5%	26.0%	79.0%	25.7%
2026-09-27T20:41:30+00:00	60.4%	39.5%	26.0%	79.0%	25.7%
2026-09-27T21:26:34+00:00	60.4%	39.5%	26.0%	79.0%	25.7%
2026-09-27T22:11:38+00:00	60.4%	39.5%	26.0%	79.0%	25.7%
2026-09-27T22:56:47+00:00	60.4%	39.5%	25.2%	79.0%	25.7%
2026-09-27T23:41:52+00:00	60.4%	39.5%	25.2%	79.0%	25.7%
2026-09-28T00:26:58+00:00	60.4%	39.5%	25.2%	79.0%	25.7%
2026-09-28T01:12:06+00:00	60.4%	39.5%	25.2%	79.0%	25.7%
2026-09-28T01:57:14+00:00	60.4%	39.5%	25.2%	79.0%	25.7%
2026-09-28T02:42:19+00:00	60.4%	39.5%	25.2%	79.0%	25.7%
2026-09-28T03:28:06+00:00	60.4%	39.5%	25.2%	79.0%	25.7%
2026-09-28T04:13:31+00:00	60.4%	39.5%	25.2%	79.0%	25.7%
2026-09-28T04:58:38+00:00	60.4%	39.5%	8.4%	79.0%	45.0%
2026-09-28T05:43:49+00:00	60.4%	39.5%	8.4%	79.0%	45.0%
2026-09-28T06:28:57+00:00	60.4%	39.5%	8.4%	79.0%	45.0%
2026-09-28T07:14:02+00:00	60.4%	39.5%	8.4%	79.0%	45.0%
2026-09-28T08:00:03+00:00	64.3%	39.5%	8.4%	59.4%	45.0%
2026-09-28T08:45:30+00:00	64.3%	39.5%	8.4%	59.4%	45.0%
2026-09-28T09:30:35+00:00	64.3%	39.5%	8.4%	59.4%	45.0%
2026-09-28T10:15:41+00:00	64.3%	39.5%	8.4%	59.4%	45.0%
2026-09-28T11:00:57+00:00	64.3%	37.4%	15.5%	59.4%	45.0%
2026-09-28T11:46:09+00:00	64.3%	37.4%	15.5%	59.4%	45.0%
2026-09-28T12:31:15+00:00	64.3%	37.4%	15.5%	59.4%	45.0%
2026-09-28T13:16:23+00:00	64.3%	37.4%	15.5%	59.4%	45.0%
2026-09-28T14:01:31+00:00	56.0%	37.4%	15.6%	59.4%	45.0%
2026-09-28T14:48:53+00:00	56.0%	37.4%	15.6%	59.4%	45.0%
2026-09-28T15:34:05+00:00	56.0%	35.0%	15.6%	59.4%	45.0%
2026-09-28T16:19:11+00:00	56.0%	35.0%	15.6%	59.4%	45.0%
2026-09-28T17:04:18+00:00	56.0%	35.0%	13.3%	59.6%	35.2%
2026-09-28T17:49:25+00:00	56.0%	35.0%	13.3%	59.6%	35.2%
2026-09-28T18:34:30+00:00	56.0%	35.0%	13.3%	59.6%	35.2%
2026-09-28T19:19:36+00:00	56.0%	35.0%	13.3%	59.6%	35.2%
2026-09-28T20:04:47+00:00	56.9%	35.0%	13.3%	44.4%	35.2%
2026-09-28T20:49:52+00:00	56.9%	35.0%	13.3%	44.4%	35.2%
2026-09-28T21:34:56+00:00	56.9%	35.0%	13.3%	44.4%	35.2%
2026-09-28T22:20:00+00:00	56.9%	35.0%	13.3%	44.4%	35.2%
2026-09-28T23:05:06+00:00	56.9%	35.0%	15.6%	44.5%	35.2%
2026-09-28T23:50:13+00:00	56.9%	35.0%	15.6%	44.5%	35.2%
2026-09-29T00:35:20+00:00	56.9%	35.0%	15.6%	44.5%	35.2%
2026-09-29T01:20:30+00:00	56.9%	35.0%	15.6%	44.5%	35.2%
2026-09-29T02:05:56+00:00	55.2%	35.0%	15.6%	44.5%	35.2%
2026-09-29T02:51:03+00:00	55.2%	35.0%	15.6%	44.5%	35.2%
2026-09-29T03:36:08+00:00	55.2%	35.0%	15.6%	44.5%	35.2%
2026-09-29T04:21:42+00:00	55.2%	35.0%	15.6%	44.5%	39.9%
2026-09-29T05:06:58+00:00	55.2%	35.0%	14.4%	44.5%	39.9%
2026-09-29T05:52:06+00:00	55.2%	35.0%	14.4%	44.5%	39.9%
2026-09-29T06:37:12+00:00	55.2%	35.0%	14.4%	44.5%	39.9%
2026-09-29T07:22:50+00:00	54.6%	35.0%	14.4%	40.3%	39.9%
2026-09-29T08:08:26+00:00	54.6%	35.0%	14.4%	40.3%	39.9%
2026-09-29T08:53:34+00:00	54.6%	35.0%	14.4%	40.3%	39.9%
2026-09-29T09:38:39+00:00	54.6%	35.0%	14.4%	40.3%	39.9%
2026-09-29T10:23:44+00:00	54.6%	35.0%	14.4%	40.3%	39.9%
2026-09-29T11:09:01+00:00	54.6%	23.4%	14.4%	40.3%	39.9%
2026-09-29T11:54:08+00:00	54.6%	23.4%	14.4%	40.3%	39.9%
2026-09-29T12:39:13+00:00	54.6%	23.4%	14.4%	40.3%	39.9%
2026-09-29T13:24:18+00:00	50.0%	23.4%	14.4%	40.3%	39.9%
2026-09-29T14:11:43+00:00	50.0%	23.4%	14.4%	40.3%	39.9%
2026-09-29T14:57:02+00:00	50.0%	21.7%	14.4%	40.3%	39.9%
2026-09-29T15:42:27+00:00	50.0%	21.7%	14.4%	40.3%	39.9%
2026-09-29T16:27:45+00:00	50.0%	21.7%	14.4%	40.3%	13.5%
2026-09-29T17:12:54+00:00	50.0%	21.7%	17.2%	40.3%	13.5%
2026-09-29T17:58:01+00:00	50.0%	21.7%	17.2%	40.3%	13.5%
2026-09-29T18:43:08+00:00	50.0%	21.7%	17.2%	40.3%	13.5%
2026-09-29T19:28:20+00:00	55.5%	21.7%	17.2%	39.5%	13.5%
2026-09-29T20:13:41+00:00	55.5%	21.7%	17.2%	39.5%	13.5%
2026-09-29T20:58:50+00:00	55.5%	21.7%	17.2%	39.5%	13.5%
2026-09-29T21:43:57+00:00	55.5%	21.7%	17.2%	39.5%	13.5%
2026-09-29T22:29:04+00:00	55.5%	21.7%	17.2%	39.5%	13.5%
2026-09-29T23:14:23+00:00	55.5%	21.7%	17.9%	39.5%	13.5%
2026-09-29T23:59:29+00:00	55.5%	21.7%	17.9%	39.5%	13.5%
2026-09-30T00:44:36+00:00	55.5%	21.7%	17.9%	39.5%	13.5%
2026-09-30T01:29:55+00:00	62.6%	21.7%	17.9%	39.5%	13.5%
2026-09-30T02:15:02+00:00	62.6%	21.7%	17.9%	39.5%	13.5%
2026-09-30T03:00:16+00:00	62.6%	21.7%	17.9%	39.5%	13.5%
2026-09-30T03:45:25+00:00	62.6%	21.7%	17.9%	39.5%	13.5%
2026-09-30T04:31:03+00:00	62.6%	21.7%	17.9%	39.5%	20.5%
2026-09-30T05:16:24+00:00	62.6%	21.7%	20.1%	39.5%	20.5%
2026-09-30T06:01:30+00:00	62.6%	21.7%	20.1%	39.5%	20.5%
2026-09-30T06:46:39+00:00	62.6%	21.7%	20.1%	39.5%	20.5%
2026-09-30T07:32:33+00:00	62.6%	21.7%	20.1%	53.9%	20.5%
2026-09-30T08:18:26+00:00	62.6%	21.7%	20.1%	53.9%	20.5%
2026-09-30T09:03:37+00:00	62.6%	21.7%	20.1%	53.9%	20.5%
2026-09-30T09:48:43+00:00	62.6%	21.7%	20.1%	53.9%	20.5%
2026-09-30T10:34:53+00:00	67.6%	21.7%	20.1%	53.9%	20.5%
2026-09-30T11:20:08+00:00	67.6%	27.6%	23.2%	53.9%	20.5%
2026-09-30T12:05:15+00:00	67.6%	27.6%	23.2%	53.9%	20.5%
2026-09-30T12:50:21+00:00	67.6%	27.6%	23.2%	53.9%	20.5%
2026-09-30T13:35:33+00:00	60.4%	27.6%	23.2%	53.9%	20.5%
2026-09-30T14:23:11+00:00	60.4%	27.6%	23.3%	53.9%	20.5%
2026-09-30T15:08:17+00:00	60.4%	27.7%	23.3%	53.9%	20.5%
2026-10-02T03:21:13+00:00	60.8%	19.1%	7.4%	34.4%	16.0%
2026-10-02T04:06:27+00:00	60.8%	19.1%	7.4%	34.4%	16.0%
2026-10-02T04:51:33+00:00	60.8%	19.1%	7.4%	34.4%	16.0%
2026-10-02T05:36:56+00:00	60.8%	19.1%	38.6%	34.4%	16.0%
2026-10-02T06:22:04+00:00	60.8%	19.1%	38.6%	34.4%	16.0%
2026-10-02T07:07:17+00:00	60.8%	19.1%	38.6%	34.4%	16.0%
2026-10-02T07:52:24+00:00	61.6%	19.1%	38.6%	34.4%	16.0%
2026-10-02T08:37:33+00:00	61.6%	19.1%	38.6%	34.4%	16.0%
2026-10-02T09:22:39+00:00	61.6%	19.1%	38.6%	34.4%	16.0%
2026-10-02T10:07:45+00:00	61.6%	19.1%	38.6%	34.4%	16.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	62%	85.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-02 00:00	0.3795
WeatherNext 2	39%	83.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-01 18:00	0.1490
IFS HRES	34%	83.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 12:00	0.1183
National Blend	26%	83.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 00:00	0.0692
IFS Ensemble	19%	80.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-01 00:00	0.0365
ICON	16%	81.0°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	0.0256
NWS forecast	13%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 02:00	0.0164

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 85°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261002-TMAX-GE85
Opened Sep 25 · 19:40 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 85°F+ · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗