— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
now
98¢
hrrr
90¢
aifs
85¢
wn2
62¢
ndfd
59¢
nbm
59¢
hres
58¢
rrfs
51¢
eps
35¢
icon
16¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F6¢
72–73°F21¢
74–75°F33¢
76–77°F26¢
78–79°F10¢
80–81°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,303 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.518 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBOI-20261016-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-12T04:01:55+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape