KBOI / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST57%Oct 16 · 12:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

62%

58%

35%

16%

Consensus

57%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 50.8¢Risks 50.85u

ICONNO 49.2¢Risks 49.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +49.15u · ICON −49.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:55+00:00	69.5%	40.2%	27.7%	53.5%	48.6%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	69.5%	40.2%	27.7%	53.5%	48.6%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	69.5%	40.2%	35.6%	53.5%	48.6%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	69.5%	40.2%	35.6%	53.5%	48.6%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	69.5%	40.2%	35.6%	53.5%	48.6%
2026-10-12T07:48:58+00:00	62.0%	40.2%	35.6%	49.2%	47.5%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	62.0%	40.2%	35.6%	49.2%	47.5%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	62.0%	40.2%	35.6%	49.2%	47.5%
2026-10-12T10:05:01+00:00	62.0%	40.2%	35.6%	49.2%	47.5%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	62.0%	40.2%	35.6%	49.2%	47.5%
2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:00	62.0%	40.2%	35.3%	49.2%	47.5%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	62.0%	36.5%	35.3%	49.2%	47.5%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	62.0%	36.5%	35.3%	49.2%	47.5%
2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00	79.6%	36.5%	35.3%	49.2%	47.5%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	79.6%	36.7%	35.4%	49.2%	47.5%
2026-10-12T15:27:44+00:00	79.6%	36.7%	35.4%	49.2%	47.5%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	79.6%	32.7%	35.4%	49.2%	47.5%
2026-10-12T16:58:07+00:00	79.6%	32.7%	34.4%	49.2%	47.5%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	79.6%	32.7%	34.4%	49.2%	47.5%
2026-10-12T18:28:22+00:00	79.6%	32.7%	34.4%	49.2%	47.5%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	79.6%	32.7%	34.4%	49.2%	47.5%
2026-10-12T19:58:38+00:00	83.1%	32.7%	34.4%	61.0%	38.5%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	83.1%	32.7%	34.4%	61.0%	38.5%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	83.1%	32.7%	34.4%	61.0%	38.5%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	83.1%	32.7%	34.4%	61.0%	38.5%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	83.1%	32.7%	39.4%	61.0%	38.5%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	83.1%	32.7%	39.4%	61.0%	38.5%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	83.1%	32.7%	39.4%	61.0%	38.5%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	83.0%	32.7%	39.4%	61.0%	38.5%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	81.3%	32.7%	39.4%	61.0%	38.5%
2026-10-13T02:44:58+00:00	81.3%	32.7%	39.4%	61.0%	38.5%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	81.3%	32.7%	39.4%	61.0%	38.5%
2026-10-13T04:16:21+00:00	81.3%	32.7%	39.4%	61.0%	38.5%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	81.3%	32.7%	41.5%	61.0%	38.5%
2026-10-13T05:46:54+00:00	81.3%	32.7%	41.5%	61.0%	38.5%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	81.3%	32.7%	41.5%	61.0%	38.5%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	81.3%	32.7%	41.5%	61.0%	38.5%
2026-10-13T08:04:14+00:00	83.5%	32.7%	41.5%	72.0%	39.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	83.5%	32.7%	41.5%	72.0%	39.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	83.5%	32.7%	41.5%	72.0%	39.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00	83.5%	32.7%	41.5%	72.0%	39.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:25+00:00	83.5%	38.7%	37.2%	72.0%	39.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:42+00:00	83.5%	38.7%	37.2%	72.0%	39.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	83.5%	38.7%	37.2%	72.0%	39.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	83.5%	38.7%	37.2%	72.0%	39.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	81.2%	38.7%	37.2%	72.0%	39.1%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	81.2%	34.5%	37.2%	72.0%	39.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:33+00:00	75.4%	28.9%	30.3%	56.8%	29.6%
2026-10-15T04:48:06+00:00	75.4%	28.9%	30.3%	56.8%	29.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	75.4%	28.9%	43.6%	56.8%	29.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:29+00:00	75.4%	28.9%	43.6%	56.8%	29.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	75.4%	28.9%	43.6%	56.8%	29.6%
2026-10-15T07:50:23+00:00	76.0%	28.9%	43.6%	61.6%	19.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	76.0%	28.9%	43.6%	61.6%	19.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	76.0%	28.9%	43.6%	61.6%	19.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:42+00:00	76.0%	28.9%	43.6%	61.6%	19.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:44+00:00	76.0%	28.9%	43.2%	61.6%	19.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:34+00:00	76.0%	28.9%	43.2%	61.6%	19.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	76.0%	28.9%	43.2%	61.6%	19.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:36+00:00	76.0%	28.9%	43.2%	61.6%	19.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	74.4%	29.2%	41.8%	61.6%	18.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	74.4%	29.2%	41.8%	61.6%	18.9%
2026-10-15T15:34:38+00:00	74.4%	29.7%	41.8%	61.6%	18.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	74.4%	29.7%	41.8%	61.6%	18.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	74.4%	29.7%	37.9%	61.6%	18.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	74.4%	29.7%	37.9%	61.6%	18.9%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	74.4%	29.7%	37.9%	61.6%	18.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	74.4%	29.7%	37.9%	61.6%	18.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	75.2%	29.7%	37.9%	58.5%	19.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00	75.2%	29.7%	37.9%	58.5%	19.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	75.2%	29.7%	37.9%	58.5%	19.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	75.2%	29.7%	37.9%	58.5%	19.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	75.2%	29.7%	32.8%	58.5%	19.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:17+00:00	75.2%	29.7%	32.8%	58.5%	19.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	75.2%	29.7%	32.8%	58.5%	19.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	79.8%	29.7%	32.8%	58.5%	19.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	79.8%	29.7%	32.8%	58.5%	19.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	79.8%	29.7%	32.8%	58.5%	19.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	79.8%	29.7%	32.8%	58.5%	19.7%
2026-10-16T04:24:57+00:00	79.8%	29.7%	32.8%	58.5%	19.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	79.8%	29.7%	54.1%	58.5%	19.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	79.8%	29.7%	54.1%	58.5%	19.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	79.8%	29.7%	54.1%	58.5%	19.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	85.2%	29.7%	54.1%	58.5%	16.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	85.2%	29.7%	54.1%	58.5%	16.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	85.2%	29.7%	54.1%	58.5%	16.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	85.2%	29.7%	54.1%	58.5%	16.5%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	85.2%	29.7%	54.1%	58.5%	16.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	85.2%	35.0%	62.4%	58.5%	16.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	85.2%	35.0%	62.4%	58.5%	16.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	85.2%	35.0%	62.4%	58.5%	16.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	85%	77.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	62%	75.3°F	2.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	75.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	75.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	35%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	71.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261016-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 75°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗