daily prop · Boise, ID · Rockies & Intermountain · settles Sun Oct 18

Boise runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Sun Oct 18

29¢

american +250 · decimal 3.5

on the tape

75°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 75°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

eps		64¢
aifs		61¢
hres		38¢
wn2		37¢
rrfs		24¢
ndfd		24¢
icon		22¢
nbm		13¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

64–65°F1¢

66–67°F3¢

68–69°F10¢

70–71°F20¢

72–73°F26¢

74–75°F22¢

76–77°F12¢

78–79°F5¢

80–81°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,304 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.693 vs climatology 8.864.

Receipts

prop id WP-KBOI-20261018-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-11T07:32:36+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape