daily prop · Boise, ID · Rockies & Intermountain · settles Mon Oct 19

Boise runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Mon Oct 19

89¢

american -781 · decimal 1.13

on the tape

75°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 75°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

hrrr		99¢
nbm		94¢
aifs		93¢
ndfd		87¢
wn2		85¢
hres		83¢
rrfs		83¢
eps		69¢
icon		51¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

68–69°F2¢

70–71°F6¢

72–73°F13¢

74–75°F21¢

76–77°F23¢

78–79°F18¢

80–81°F10¢

82–83°F4¢

84–85°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,255 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.863.

Receipts

prop id WP-KBOI-20261019-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-12T07:48:58+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape