Boise, IDHigh ≥ 75°F
Who takes which side?
Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.
Head-to-head preview
ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.
AIFS +28.15u · ICON −28.15u
These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →
Probability history
Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.
No model probability history is available for this view yet.
Forecasts & evidence
| MODEL | YES | MEAN | SPREAD σ | INITIALIZATION UTC | BRIER ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Blend | 94% | 78.0°F | 2.2°F | 2026-10-19 00:00 | Pending |
| AIFS Single | 93% | 80.2°F | 3.9°F | 2026-10-18 18:00 | Pending |
| NWS forecast | 87% | 77.0°F | 2.2°F | 2026-10-19 03:00 | Pending |
| WeatherNext 2 | 85% | 77.5°F | 2.9°F | 2026-10-18 18:00 | Pending |
| IFS HRES | 83% | 78.1°F | 3.7°F | 2026-10-18 12:00 | Pending |
| IFS Ensemble | 69% | 76.6°F | 4.3°F | 2026-10-18 00:00 | Pending |
| ICON | 51% | 74.6°F | 3.5°F | 2026-10-18 12:00 | Pending |
Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.
High ≥ 75°F · KBOI
Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.
WP-KBOI-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC
Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Mon Oct 19
Original prop, full history & receipt ↗