— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
100¢
wn2
100¢
hres
98¢
icon
90¢
eps
88¢
nbm
64¢
ndfd
54¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F2¢
72–73°F10¢
74–75°F24¢
76–77°F31¢
78–79°F22¢
80–81°F8¢
82–83°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBOI-20261021-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-10-17T04:42:25+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape