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KBOI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
>99%
WN2
>99%
HRES
98%
ICON
90%
EPS
88%
Consensus
97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 93.8¢Risks 46.92u
VS
EPSNO 6.2¢Risks 3.08u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +3.08u · EPS −3.08u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 98.0% · 2026-10-17T04:42:25+00:00AIFS Single: 98.0% · 2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00AIFS Single: 98.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00AIFS Single: 98.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00AIFS Single: 99.8% · 2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00AIFS Single: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.3% · 2026-10-17T04:42:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.3% · 2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.3% · 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.3% · 2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.3% · 2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.6% · 2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.6% · 2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.6% · 2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.6% · 2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.1% · 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-17T04:42:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.6% · 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00IFS HRES: 91.9% · 2026-10-17T04:42:25+00:00IFS HRES: 91.9% · 2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00IFS HRES: 91.9% · 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00IFS HRES: 91.9% · 2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00IFS HRES: 97.8% · 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00ICON: 87.4% · 2026-10-17T04:42:25+00:00ICON: 87.4% · 2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00ICON: 87.4% · 2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00ICON: 87.4% · 2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00ICON: 90.6% · 2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00ICON: 90.6% · 2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00ICON: 90.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00ICON: 90.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00ICON: 90.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00ICON: 90.6% · 2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00ICON: 90.6% · 2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00ICON: 90.6% · 2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00ICON: 90.6% · 2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00ICON: 90.5% · 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:0010-17 04:4210-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:42:25+00:0098.0%63.3%94.0%91.9%87.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:0098.0%63.3%96.0%91.9%87.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:0098.0%63.3%96.0%91.9%87.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:0098.0%63.3%96.0%91.9%87.4%
2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:0099.8%63.3%96.0%97.8%90.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:0099.8%63.3%96.0%97.8%90.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:0099.8%63.3%96.0%97.8%90.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:0099.8%63.3%96.0%97.8%90.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:0099.8%63.3%96.0%97.8%90.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:0099.8%88.6%99.6%97.8%90.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:0099.8%88.6%99.6%97.8%90.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:0099.8%88.6%99.6%97.8%90.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:0099.6%88.6%99.6%97.8%90.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:0099.6%88.1%99.6%97.8%90.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single>99%77.8°F4.6°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 2>99%75.3°F3.7°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES98%75.6°F5.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON90%71.9°F4.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble88%73.6°F6.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend64%68.0°F6.8°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%66.0°F4.5°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗