daily prop · Boise, ID · Rockies & Intermountain · settles Wed Oct 21

Boise runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Wed Oct 21

87¢

american -661 · decimal 1.15

on the tape

74°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 74°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

hrrr		99¢
nbm		94¢
aifs		90¢
rrfs		90¢
ndfd		87¢
wn2		80¢
hres		78¢
eps		71¢
icon		42¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

70–71°F2¢

72–73°F10¢

74–75°F24¢

76–77°F31¢

78–79°F22¢

80–81°F8¢

82–83°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KBOI-20261021-TMAX-GE74 · opened 2026-10-14T19:43:39+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape