KBOI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST87%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

80%

78%

71%

42%

Consensus

87%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 66.0¢Risks 66.00u

ICONNO 34.0¢Risks 34.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +34.00u · ICON −34.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T19:43:39+00:00	47.9%	25.9%	0.8%	69.3%	29.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	47.9%	25.9%	0.8%	69.3%	29.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	47.9%	25.9%	0.8%	69.3%	29.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	47.9%	25.9%	0.8%	69.3%	29.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	47.9%	25.9%	0.8%	69.3%	29.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	47.9%	25.9%	4.5%	69.3%	29.0%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	47.9%	25.9%	4.5%	69.3%	29.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	47.9%	25.9%	4.5%	69.3%	29.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	18.2%	25.9%	4.5%	69.3%	29.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	18.2%	25.9%	4.5%	69.3%	29.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	18.2%	25.9%	4.5%	69.3%	29.0%
2026-10-15T04:02:34+00:00	18.2%	25.9%	4.5%	69.3%	29.0%
2026-10-15T04:48:06+00:00	18.2%	25.9%	4.5%	69.3%	29.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	18.2%	25.9%	3.0%	69.3%	29.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:29+00:00	18.2%	25.9%	3.0%	69.3%	29.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00	18.2%	25.9%	3.0%	69.3%	29.0%
2026-10-15T07:50:23+00:00	9.7%	25.9%	3.0%	27.7%	1.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	9.7%	25.9%	3.0%	27.7%	1.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	9.7%	25.9%	3.0%	27.7%	1.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:42+00:00	9.7%	25.9%	3.0%	27.7%	1.4%
2026-10-15T10:53:44+00:00	9.7%	25.9%	3.0%	27.7%	1.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:35+00:00	9.7%	25.9%	3.0%	27.7%	1.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	9.7%	33.4%	3.0%	27.7%	1.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:36+00:00	9.7%	33.4%	3.0%	27.7%	1.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	26.4%	33.5%	3.0%	27.7%	1.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	26.4%	33.5%	3.0%	27.7%	1.5%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00	26.4%	33.1%	3.0%	27.7%	1.5%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	26.4%	33.1%	3.0%	27.7%	1.5%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	26.4%	33.1%	7.6%	27.7%	1.5%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	26.4%	33.1%	7.6%	27.7%	1.5%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	26.4%	33.1%	7.6%	27.7%	1.5%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	26.4%	33.1%	7.6%	27.7%	1.5%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	28.9%	33.1%	7.6%	44.0%	2.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:34+00:00	28.9%	33.1%	7.6%	44.0%	2.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	28.9%	33.1%	7.6%	44.0%	2.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	28.9%	33.1%	7.6%	44.0%	2.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	28.9%	33.1%	4.5%	44.0%	2.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:17+00:00	28.9%	33.1%	4.5%	44.0%	2.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	28.9%	33.1%	4.5%	44.0%	2.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	29.5%	33.1%	4.5%	44.0%	2.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	29.5%	33.1%	4.5%	44.0%	2.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	29.5%	33.1%	4.5%	44.0%	2.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	29.5%	33.1%	4.5%	44.0%	2.5%
2026-10-16T04:24:57+00:00	29.5%	33.1%	4.5%	44.0%	2.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	29.5%	33.1%	6.2%	44.0%	2.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	29.5%	33.1%	6.2%	44.0%	2.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	29.5%	33.1%	6.2%	44.0%	2.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	37.4%	33.1%	6.2%	44.0%	43.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	37.4%	33.1%	6.2%	44.0%	43.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	37.4%	33.1%	6.2%	44.0%	43.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	37.4%	33.1%	6.2%	44.0%	43.4%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	37.4%	33.1%	6.2%	44.0%	43.4%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	37.4%	29.4%	3.4%	44.0%	43.4%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	37.4%	29.4%	3.4%	44.0%	43.4%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	37.4%	29.4%	3.4%	44.0%	43.4%
2026-10-16T13:28:54+00:00	56.4%	29.4%	3.4%	13.4%	43.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	56.4%	29.4%	3.4%	13.4%	43.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:45+00:00	56.4%	29.7%	3.4%	13.4%	43.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:58+00:00	56.4%	29.6%	3.4%	13.4%	43.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	56.4%	29.6%	3.4%	13.4%	43.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	56.4%	29.6%	12.6%	13.4%	43.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	56.4%	29.6%	12.6%	13.4%	43.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	56.4%	29.6%	12.6%	13.4%	43.4%
2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00	65.7%	29.6%	12.6%	13.4%	42.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	65.7%	29.6%	12.6%	13.4%	42.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	65.7%	29.6%	12.6%	13.4%	42.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	65.7%	29.6%	12.6%	13.4%	42.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	65.7%	29.6%	12.6%	50.7%	42.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	65.7%	29.6%	34.9%	50.7%	42.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	65.7%	29.6%	34.9%	50.7%	42.8%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	65.7%	29.6%	34.9%	50.7%	42.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	67.1%	29.6%	34.9%	50.7%	42.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	67.1%	29.6%	34.9%	50.7%	42.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	67.1%	29.6%	34.9%	50.7%	42.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	67.1%	29.6%	34.9%	50.7%	42.8%
2026-10-17T04:42:26+00:00	67.1%	29.6%	34.9%	50.7%	42.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	67.1%	29.6%	42.3%	50.7%	42.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	67.1%	29.6%	42.3%	50.7%	42.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	67.1%	29.6%	42.3%	50.7%	42.8%
2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00	88.1%	29.6%	42.3%	66.3%	37.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00	88.1%	29.6%	42.3%	66.3%	37.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	88.1%	29.6%	42.3%	66.3%	37.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	88.1%	29.6%	42.3%	66.3%	37.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	88.1%	29.6%	42.3%	66.3%	37.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	88.1%	50.6%	68.6%	66.3%	37.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	88.1%	50.6%	68.6%	66.3%	37.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	88.1%	50.6%	68.6%	66.3%	37.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	82.6%	50.6%	68.6%	66.3%	37.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	82.6%	50.6%	68.5%	66.3%	37.2%
2026-10-17T15:25:15+00:00	82.6%	51.2%	68.5%	66.3%	37.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	82.6%	51.2%	68.5%	66.3%	37.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	82.6%	51.2%	61.6%	66.3%	37.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	82.6%	51.2%	61.6%	66.3%	37.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	82.6%	51.2%	61.6%	66.3%	37.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	82.6%	51.2%	61.6%	66.3%	37.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	81.4%	51.2%	61.6%	57.1%	70.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	81.4%	51.2%	61.6%	57.1%	70.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	81.4%	51.2%	61.6%	57.1%	70.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	81.4%	51.2%	61.6%	57.1%	70.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	81.4%	51.2%	55.3%	57.1%	70.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	81.4%	51.2%	55.3%	57.1%	70.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	81.4%	51.2%	55.3%	57.1%	70.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	81.4%	51.2%	55.3%	57.1%	70.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	86.2%	51.2%	55.3%	57.1%	70.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	86.2%	51.2%	55.3%	57.1%	70.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	86.2%	51.2%	55.3%	57.1%	70.3%
2026-10-18T14:56:04+00:00	91.3%	59.9%	71.4%	83.8%	78.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00	91.3%	61.9%	71.4%	83.8%	78.1%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	91.3%	61.9%	71.4%	83.8%	78.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	91.3%	61.9%	63.9%	83.8%	78.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	91.3%	61.9%	63.9%	83.8%	78.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	91.3%	61.9%	63.9%	83.8%	78.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	87.9%	61.9%	63.9%	74.9%	64.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	87.9%	61.9%	63.9%	74.9%	64.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	87.9%	61.9%	63.9%	74.9%	64.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	87.9%	61.9%	63.9%	74.9%	64.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	87.9%	61.9%	63.9%	74.9%	64.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	87.9%	61.9%	67.2%	74.9%	64.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:56+00:00	87.9%	61.9%	67.2%	74.9%	64.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	87.9%	61.9%	67.2%	74.9%	64.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	86.4%	61.9%	67.2%	74.9%	64.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	86.4%	61.9%	67.2%	74.9%	64.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	86.4%	61.9%	67.2%	74.9%	64.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	86.4%	61.9%	67.2%	74.9%	64.7%
2026-10-19T04:31:25+00:00	86.4%	61.9%	67.2%	74.9%	64.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	86.4%	61.9%	74.3%	74.9%	64.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:15+00:00	86.4%	61.9%	74.3%	74.9%	64.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	86.4%	61.9%	74.3%	74.9%	64.7%
2026-10-19T07:33:42+00:00	90.0%	61.9%	74.3%	79.7%	45.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	90.0%	61.9%	74.3%	79.7%	45.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	90.0%	61.9%	74.3%	79.7%	45.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	90.0%	61.9%	74.3%	79.7%	45.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:24+00:00	90.0%	61.9%	74.3%	79.7%	45.5%
2026-10-19T11:21:14+00:00	90.0%	73.1%	78.1%	79.7%	45.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	90.0%	73.1%	78.1%	79.7%	45.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	90.0%	73.1%	78.1%	79.7%	45.5%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	86.6%	73.1%	78.1%	79.7%	45.5%
2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00	86.7%	73.1%	78.1%	79.7%	45.5%
2026-10-19T15:13:51+00:00	86.7%	74.6%	78.1%	79.7%	45.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	86.7%	74.6%	78.1%	79.7%	45.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	86.7%	74.6%	78.1%	79.7%	45.5%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00	86.7%	74.6%	66.3%	79.7%	45.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	86.7%	74.6%	66.3%	79.7%	45.5%
2026-10-19T19:00:15+00:00	86.7%	74.6%	66.3%	79.7%	45.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	86.7%	74.6%	66.3%	72.9%	12.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	86.7%	74.6%	66.3%	72.9%	12.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	86.7%	74.6%	66.3%	72.9%	12.5%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	86.7%	74.6%	66.3%	72.9%	12.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	86.7%	74.6%	66.3%	72.9%	12.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	86.7%	74.6%	66.3%	72.9%	12.5%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00	86.7%	74.6%	66.3%	72.9%	12.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	86.7%	74.6%	66.3%	72.9%	12.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	89.7%	74.6%	66.3%	72.9%	12.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	89.7%	74.6%	66.3%	72.9%	12.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	89.7%	74.6%	66.3%	72.9%	12.5%
2026-10-20T04:05:30+00:00	89.7%	74.6%	66.3%	72.9%	12.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	89.7%	74.6%	66.3%	72.9%	12.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	89.7%	74.6%	73.0%	72.9%	12.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	89.7%	74.6%	73.0%	72.9%	12.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	89.7%	74.6%	73.0%	72.9%	12.5%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	89.8%	74.6%	73.0%	72.9%	42.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	89.8%	74.6%	73.0%	72.9%	42.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	89.8%	74.6%	73.0%	72.9%	42.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	89.8%	74.6%	73.0%	72.9%	42.2%
2026-10-20T10:54:11+00:00	89.8%	70.6%	80.5%	78.3%	42.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00	89.8%	70.6%	80.5%	78.3%	42.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	89.8%	70.6%	80.5%	78.3%	42.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	89.8%	70.6%	80.5%	78.3%	42.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:24+00:00	89.9%	70.6%	80.5%	78.3%	42.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	94%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	78.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	87%	77.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	76.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	76.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	75.9°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	42%	72.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261021-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 14 · 19:43 UTC

Original listing: Boise runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗