— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
13¢
nbm
11¢
icon
5¢
ndfd
5¢
aifs
3¢
wn2
2¢
eps
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
48–49°F1¢
50–51°F3¢
52–53°F8¢
54–55°F15¢
56–57°F22¢
58–59°F22¢
60–61°F16¢
62–63°F8¢
64–65°F3¢
66–67°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBOI-20261023-TMAX-LE50 · opened 2026-10-19T07:33:42+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape