KBOI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≤ 50°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 6.8¢Risks 3.40u

EPSNO 93.2¢Risks 46.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.60u · EPS −46.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:33:42+00:00	9.9%	8.5%	6.3%	24.2%	1.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	9.9%	8.5%	6.3%	24.2%	1.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	9.9%	8.5%	6.3%	24.2%	1.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	9.9%	8.5%	6.3%	24.2%	1.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:24+00:00	9.9%	8.5%	6.3%	24.2%	1.4%
2026-10-19T11:21:14+00:00	9.9%	2.0%	3.8%	24.2%	1.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	9.9%	2.0%	3.8%	24.2%	1.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	9.9%	2.0%	3.8%	24.2%	1.4%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	7.2%	2.0%	3.8%	24.2%	1.4%
2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00	7.2%	2.0%	3.8%	24.2%	1.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:51+00:00	7.2%	1.9%	3.8%	24.2%	1.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	7.2%	1.9%	3.8%	24.2%	1.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	7.2%	1.9%	3.8%	24.2%	1.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00	7.2%	1.9%	1.3%	24.2%	1.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	7.2%	1.9%	1.3%	24.2%	1.4%
2026-10-19T19:00:15+00:00	7.2%	1.9%	1.3%	24.2%	1.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	7.8%	1.9%	1.3%	24.8%	9.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	7.8%	1.9%	1.3%	24.8%	9.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	7.8%	1.9%	1.3%	24.8%	9.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	7.8%	1.9%	1.3%	24.8%	9.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	7.8%	1.9%	1.3%	24.8%	9.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	7.8%	1.9%	3.6%	24.8%	9.8%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00	7.8%	1.9%	3.6%	24.8%	9.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	7.8%	1.9%	3.6%	24.8%	9.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:50+00:00	5.8%	1.9%	3.6%	24.8%	9.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	5.8%	1.9%	3.6%	24.8%	9.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	5.8%	1.9%	3.6%	24.8%	9.8%
2026-10-20T04:05:31+00:00	5.8%	1.9%	3.6%	24.8%	9.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	5.8%	1.9%	3.6%	24.8%	9.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	5.8%	1.9%	2.3%	24.8%	9.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	5.8%	1.9%	2.3%	24.8%	9.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	5.8%	1.9%	2.3%	24.8%	9.8%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	2.9%	1.9%	2.3%	24.8%	5.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	2.9%	1.9%	2.3%	24.8%	5.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	2.9%	1.9%	2.3%	24.8%	5.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	2.9%	1.9%	2.3%	24.8%	5.2%
2026-10-20T10:54:11+00:00	2.9%	0.5%	1.9%	13.1%	5.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00	2.9%	0.5%	1.9%	13.1%	5.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	2.9%	0.5%	1.9%	13.1%	5.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	2.9%	0.5%	1.9%	13.1%	5.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	13%	55.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	11%	56.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	5%	57.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	57.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	58.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	57.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	70.0°F	7.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 50°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261023-TMAX-LE50
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Boise stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 50°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗