— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
64¢
ndfd
54¢
icon
49¢
eps
47¢
wn2
46¢
nbm
46¢
hres
20¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
50–51°F2¢
52–53°F6¢
54–55°F12¢
56–57°F19¢
58–59°F22¢
60–61°F19¢
62–63°F12¢
64–65°F6¢
66–67°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBOI-20261024-TMAX-GE59 · opened 2026-10-18T04:14:41+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape