KBOI / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST46%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

49%

47%

46%

20%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.9¢Risks 41.90u

HRESNO 58.1¢Risks 58.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.10u · HRES −58.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:41+00:00	64.3%	70.2%	28.5%	77.6%	49.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	64.3%	70.2%	25.3%	77.6%	49.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	64.3%	70.2%	25.3%	77.6%	49.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	64.3%	70.2%	25.3%	77.6%	49.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	64.3%	70.2%	25.3%	77.6%	49.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:47+00:00	94.4%	70.2%	25.3%	70.2%	18.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	94.4%	70.2%	25.3%	70.2%	18.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	94.4%	70.2%	25.3%	70.2%	18.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00	94.4%	70.2%	25.3%	70.2%	18.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:00	94.4%	43.9%	40.7%	70.2%	18.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	94.4%	43.9%	40.7%	70.2%	18.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00	94.4%	43.9%	40.7%	70.2%	18.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	94.4%	43.9%	40.7%	70.2%	18.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	83.6%	44.0%	40.7%	70.2%	18.9%
2026-10-19T04:31:26+00:00	60.9%	46.3%	34.2%	53.6%	94.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	60.9%	46.3%	45.7%	53.6%	94.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:15+00:00	60.9%	46.3%	45.7%	53.6%	94.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	60.9%	46.3%	45.7%	53.6%	94.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:42+00:00	72.8%	46.3%	45.7%	20.4%	49.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	72.8%	46.3%	45.7%	20.4%	49.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	72.8%	46.3%	45.7%	20.4%	49.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	72.8%	46.3%	45.7%	20.4%	49.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:24+00:00	72.8%	46.3%	45.7%	20.4%	49.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:14+00:00	72.8%	47.4%	46.1%	20.4%	49.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	72.8%	47.4%	46.1%	20.4%	49.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	72.8%	47.4%	46.1%	20.4%	49.3%
2026-10-19T13:37:03+00:00	63.4%	47.4%	46.1%	20.4%	49.3%
2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00	63.5%	47.4%	46.1%	20.3%	49.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	64%	60.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	59.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	49%	58.4°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	58.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	58.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	58.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	53.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261024-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 59°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗