— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
83¢
eps
54¢
nbm
52¢
icon
49¢
wn2
30¢
hres
22¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
52–53°F1¢
54–55°F2¢
56–57°F5¢
58–59°F9¢
60–61°F14¢
62–63°F17¢
64–65°F17¢
66–67°F14¢
68–69°F10¢
70–71°F6¢
72–73°F3¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBOI-20261025-TMAX-GE61 · opened 2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape