KBOI / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boise, IDHigh ≥ 61°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

54%

49%

30%

22%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.8¢Risks 52.75u

HRESNO 47.2¢Risks 47.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.25u · HRES −47.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:59+00:00	16.5%	52.5%	18.9%	93.8%	1.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	16.5%	52.5%	18.9%	93.8%	1.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:54+00:00	16.5%	52.5%	18.9%	93.8%	1.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	16.5%	52.5%	18.9%	93.8%	1.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	95.4%	52.5%	18.9%	93.8%	1.3%
2026-10-18T14:56:05+00:00	95.4%	52.5%	18.9%	93.8%	1.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00	95.4%	54.2%	18.9%	93.8%	1.3%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	95.4%	54.2%	18.9%	93.8%	1.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	95.4%	54.2%	18.9%	93.8%	1.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	95.4%	54.2%	18.9%	93.8%	1.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	95.4%	54.2%	18.9%	93.8%	1.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	94.3%	54.2%	18.9%	22.4%	48.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	94.3%	54.2%	18.9%	22.4%	48.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	94.3%	54.2%	18.9%	22.4%	48.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	94.3%	54.2%	18.9%	22.4%	48.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	94.3%	54.2%	18.9%	22.4%	48.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	94.3%	54.2%	29.9%	22.4%	48.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:56+00:00	94.3%	54.2%	29.9%	22.4%	48.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	94.3%	54.2%	29.9%	22.4%	48.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	83.1%	54.2%	29.9%	22.4%	48.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	83.1%	54.2%	29.9%	22.4%	48.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	83.1%	54.2%	29.9%	22.4%	48.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	83.1%	54.2%	29.9%	22.4%	48.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	83%	66.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	61.5°F	9.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	61.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	49%	60.2°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	30%	57.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	55.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 61°F · KBOI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOI-20261025-TMAX-GE61
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Boise high ≥ 61°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗