— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
71¢
aifs
64¢
ndfd
54¢
nbm
37¢
hres
30¢
icon
27¢
eps
6¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
54–55°F3¢
56–57°F12¢
58–59°F26¢
60–61°F31¢
62–63°F20¢
64–65°F7¢
66–67°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,459 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.516 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBOS-20261020-TMAX-GE62 · opened 2026-10-15T04:47:47+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape