KBOS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

64%

30%

27%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 38.5¢Risks 38.45u

EPSNO 61.5¢Risks 61.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +61.55u · EPS −61.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:47:47+00:00	67.2%	42.3%	73.3%	37.5%	52.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:14+00:00	67.2%	42.3%	90.4%	37.5%	52.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	67.2%	42.3%	90.4%	37.5%	52.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:32+00:00	67.2%	42.3%	90.4%	37.5%	52.8%
2026-10-15T07:48:46+00:00	59.5%	42.3%	90.4%	19.8%	63.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	59.5%	42.3%	90.4%	19.8%	63.2%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00	59.5%	42.3%	90.4%	19.8%	63.2%
2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00	59.5%	42.3%	90.4%	19.8%	63.2%
2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00	59.5%	42.3%	90.4%	19.8%	63.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:00+00:00	59.5%	42.3%	82.9%	19.8%	63.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00	59.5%	34.8%	82.9%	19.8%	63.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:00+00:00	59.5%	34.8%	82.9%	19.8%	63.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:45+00:00	86.6%	34.8%	82.9%	19.8%	63.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	86.6%	34.8%	82.9%	19.8%	63.7%
2026-10-15T15:33:30+00:00	86.6%	36.8%	82.9%	19.8%	63.7%
2026-10-15T16:19:50+00:00	86.6%	36.8%	82.9%	19.8%	63.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:18+00:00	86.6%	36.8%	95.6%	19.8%	63.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:31+00:00	86.6%	36.8%	95.6%	19.8%	63.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:50+00:00	86.6%	36.8%	95.6%	19.8%	63.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:04+00:00	86.6%	36.8%	95.6%	19.8%	63.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	55.6%	36.8%	95.6%	34.5%	52.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	55.6%	36.8%	95.6%	34.5%	52.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	55.6%	36.8%	95.6%	34.5%	52.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	55.6%	36.8%	95.6%	34.5%	52.0%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00	55.6%	36.8%	81.6%	34.5%	52.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:11+00:00	55.6%	36.8%	81.6%	34.5%	52.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	55.6%	36.8%	81.6%	34.5%	52.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00	52.4%	36.8%	81.6%	34.5%	52.0%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	52.4%	36.8%	81.6%	34.5%	52.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:23+00:00	52.4%	36.8%	81.6%	34.5%	52.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	52.4%	36.8%	81.6%	34.5%	52.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:46+00:00	52.4%	36.8%	81.6%	34.5%	52.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	52.4%	36.8%	66.0%	34.5%	52.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:36+00:00	52.4%	36.8%	66.0%	34.5%	52.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	52.4%	36.8%	66.0%	34.5%	52.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	52.4%	36.8%	66.0%	34.5%	52.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:20+00:00	56.1%	36.8%	66.0%	34.5%	26.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	56.1%	36.8%	66.0%	34.5%	26.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:39+00:00	56.1%	36.8%	66.0%	34.5%	26.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00	56.1%	36.8%	66.0%	34.5%	26.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:01+00:00	56.1%	5.5%	71.4%	34.5%	26.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:34+00:00	56.1%	5.5%	71.4%	34.5%	26.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:44+00:00	56.1%	5.5%	71.4%	34.5%	26.9%
2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00	56.1%	5.5%	71.4%	34.5%	26.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:36+00:00	64.5%	5.5%	71.4%	29.5%	26.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	71%	63.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	63.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	58.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
ICON	27%	58.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	55.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261020-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 15 · 04:47 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 62°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗