— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
85¢
aifs
64¢
ndfd
54¢
icon
49¢
hres
46¢
eps
37¢
nbm
23¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
50–51°F3¢
52–53°F22¢
54–55°F44¢
56–57°F25¢
58–59°F4¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,410 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.692 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBOS-20261021-TMAX-GE57 · opened 2026-10-15T16:19:50+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape