KBOS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Boston, MAHigh ≥ 57°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST51%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

64%

49%

46%

37%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 60.7¢Risks 60.75u

EPSNO 39.3¢Risks 39.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +39.25u · EPS −39.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T16:19:50+00:00	87.5%	64.4%	87.2%	58.4%	69.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:18+00:00	87.5%	64.4%	92.4%	58.4%	69.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:31+00:00	87.5%	64.4%	92.4%	58.4%	69.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:50+00:00	87.5%	64.4%	92.4%	58.4%	69.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:04+00:00	87.5%	64.4%	92.4%	58.4%	69.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	85.1%	64.4%	92.4%	50.6%	74.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	85.1%	64.4%	92.4%	50.6%	74.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	85.1%	64.4%	92.4%	50.6%	74.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	85.1%	64.4%	92.4%	50.6%	74.1%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00	85.1%	64.4%	83.8%	50.6%	74.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:11+00:00	85.1%	64.4%	83.8%	50.6%	74.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	85.1%	64.4%	83.8%	50.6%	74.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00	84.2%	64.4%	83.8%	50.6%	74.1%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	84.2%	64.4%	83.8%	50.6%	74.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:23+00:00	84.2%	64.4%	83.8%	50.6%	74.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	84.2%	64.4%	83.8%	50.6%	74.1%
2026-10-16T04:23:46+00:00	84.2%	64.4%	83.8%	50.6%	74.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	84.2%	64.4%	86.3%	50.6%	74.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:36+00:00	84.2%	64.4%	86.3%	50.6%	74.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:00+00:00	84.2%	64.4%	86.3%	50.6%	74.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	84.2%	64.4%	86.3%	50.6%	74.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:20+00:00	88.7%	64.4%	86.3%	50.6%	52.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	88.7%	64.4%	86.3%	50.6%	52.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:39+00:00	88.7%	64.4%	86.3%	50.6%	52.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:45+00:00	88.7%	64.4%	86.3%	50.6%	52.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:01+00:00	88.7%	39.8%	87.4%	50.6%	52.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:34+00:00	88.7%	39.8%	87.4%	50.6%	52.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:44+00:00	88.7%	39.8%	87.4%	50.6%	52.0%
2026-10-16T13:27:53+00:00	88.7%	39.8%	87.4%	50.6%	52.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:36+00:00	83.8%	39.8%	87.4%	58.2%	52.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:05+00:00	83.8%	37.4%	87.4%	58.2%	52.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:52+00:00	83.8%	37.4%	87.4%	58.2%	52.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:01+00:00	83.8%	37.4%	87.4%	58.2%	52.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	83.8%	37.4%	80.3%	58.2%	52.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00	83.8%	37.4%	80.3%	58.2%	52.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:40+00:00	83.8%	37.4%	80.3%	58.2%	52.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:47+00:00	76.6%	37.4%	80.3%	58.2%	52.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:20+00:00	76.6%	37.4%	80.3%	58.2%	52.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:43+00:00	76.6%	37.4%	80.3%	58.2%	52.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	76.6%	37.4%	80.3%	58.2%	52.7%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	76.6%	37.4%	80.3%	50.7%	52.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:13+00:00	76.6%	37.4%	81.6%	50.7%	52.6%
2026-10-17T00:08:44+00:00	76.6%	37.4%	81.6%	50.7%	52.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	76.6%	37.4%	81.6%	50.7%	52.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:02+00:00	78.4%	37.4%	81.6%	50.7%	52.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	78.4%	37.4%	81.6%	50.7%	52.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:25+00:00	78.4%	37.4%	81.6%	50.7%	52.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:34+00:00	78.4%	37.4%	81.6%	50.7%	52.6%
2026-10-17T04:40:48+00:00	78.4%	37.4%	81.6%	50.7%	52.6%
2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00	78.4%	37.4%	76.0%	50.7%	52.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	78.4%	37.4%	76.0%	50.7%	52.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	78.4%	37.4%	76.0%	50.7%	52.6%
2026-10-17T07:43:51+00:00	75.1%	37.4%	76.0%	46.0%	49.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	75.1%	37.4%	76.0%	46.0%	49.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:17+00:00	75.1%	37.4%	76.0%	46.0%	49.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	75.1%	37.4%	76.0%	46.0%	49.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	75.1%	37.4%	76.0%	46.0%	49.2%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	75.1%	36.9%	84.6%	46.0%	49.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	75.1%	36.9%	84.6%	46.0%	49.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	75.1%	36.9%	84.6%	46.0%	49.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00	64.5%	36.9%	84.6%	46.0%	49.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	64.4%	36.9%	84.6%	46.0%	49.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	85%	60.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	58.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	57.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
ICON	49%	56.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	56.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	55.5°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	54.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBOS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBOS-20261021-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: Boston high ≥ 57°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗