daily prop · Buffalo, NY · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Sun Oct 18

Buffalo high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

YES

settled · observed 60

longshot hit on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 60°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop traded as low as 0¢ and still hit.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		86¢
aifs		86¢
ndfd		56¢
eps		53¢
hrrr		50¢
hres		49¢
rrfs		43¢
nbm		32¢
icon		15¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KBUF-20261018-TMAX-GE60 · opened 2026-10-14T15:12:02+00:00 · settled 2026-10-19T13:37:54+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape