KBUF / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

86%

53%

49%

15%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 50.5¢Risks 50.55u

ICONNO 49.5¢Risks 49.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +49.45u · ICON −49.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:02+00:00	62.8%	25.0%	77.4%	25.5%	43.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	62.8%	25.0%	77.4%	25.5%	43.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	62.8%	25.0%	77.4%	25.5%	43.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	62.8%	25.0%	74.1%	25.5%	43.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	62.8%	25.0%	74.1%	25.5%	43.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	62.8%	25.0%	74.1%	25.5%	43.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	72.9%	25.0%	74.1%	35.2%	41.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	72.9%	25.0%	74.1%	35.2%	41.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	72.9%	25.0%	74.1%	35.2%	41.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	72.9%	25.0%	74.1%	35.2%	41.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	72.9%	25.0%	74.1%	35.2%	41.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:29+00:00	72.9%	25.0%	74.1%	35.2%	41.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	72.9%	25.0%	77.4%	35.2%	41.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	72.9%	25.0%	77.4%	35.2%	41.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	74.3%	25.0%	77.4%	35.2%	41.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	74.3%	25.0%	77.4%	35.2%	41.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:35+00:00	74.3%	25.0%	77.4%	35.2%	41.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:10+00:00	79.1%	34.2%	85.6%	33.9%	27.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	79.1%	34.2%	85.6%	33.9%	27.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:07+00:00	79.1%	34.2%	85.6%	33.9%	27.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	79.1%	34.2%	89.6%	33.9%	27.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	79.1%	34.2%	89.6%	33.9%	27.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	79.1%	34.2%	89.6%	33.9%	27.7%
2026-10-16T19:36:52+00:00	75.4%	34.2%	89.6%	33.9%	24.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	75.4%	34.2%	89.6%	33.9%	24.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	75.4%	34.2%	89.6%	33.9%	24.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	75.4%	34.2%	89.6%	33.9%	24.0%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	75.4%	34.2%	89.6%	41.3%	24.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:19+00:00	75.4%	34.2%	84.9%	41.3%	24.0%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	75.4%	34.2%	84.9%	41.3%	24.0%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	75.4%	34.2%	84.9%	41.3%	24.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	77.7%	34.2%	84.9%	41.3%	24.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	77.7%	34.2%	84.9%	41.3%	24.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	77.7%	34.2%	84.9%	41.3%	24.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	77.7%	34.2%	84.9%	41.3%	24.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	79.9%	52.6%	89.8%	44.7%	14.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	79.9%	52.6%	89.8%	44.7%	14.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	79.9%	52.6%	86.4%	44.7%	14.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	79.9%	52.6%	86.4%	44.7%	14.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	79.9%	52.6%	86.4%	44.7%	14.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	79.9%	52.6%	86.4%	44.7%	14.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	80.6%	52.6%	86.4%	48.9%	14.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	80.6%	52.6%	86.4%	48.9%	14.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	80.6%	52.6%	86.4%	48.9%	14.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	80.6%	52.6%	86.4%	48.9%	14.7%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	80.6%	52.6%	86.4%	48.9%	14.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	80.6%	52.6%	86.4%	48.9%	14.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	80.6%	52.6%	86.4%	48.9%	14.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:43+00:00	80.6%	52.6%	86.4%	48.9%	14.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	86.2%	52.6%	86.4%	48.9%	14.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	86.2%	52.6%	86.4%	48.9%	14.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	86.2%	52.6%	86.4%	48.9%	14.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	62.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0185
AIFS Single	86%	63.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0190
NWS forecast	56%	60.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 14:00	0.1901
IFS Ensemble	53%	59.7°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.2247
IFS HRES	49%	59.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2611
National Blend	32%	59.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.4556
ICON	15%	55.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.7276

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗