— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
58¢
nbm
54¢
aifs
40¢
hres
29¢
icon
25¢
eps
22¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
52–53°F1¢
54–55°F3¢
56–57°F8¢
58–59°F14¢
60–61°F20¢
62–63°F22¢
64–65°F17¢
66–67°F10¢
68–69°F4¢
70–71°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBUF-20261024-TMAX-GE64 · opened 2026-10-17T07:44:00+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape