KBUF / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

40%

29%

25%

22%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 39.8¢Risks 39.80u

EPSNO 60.2¢Risks 60.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +60.20u · EPS −60.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:00+00:00	62.9%	44.0%	87.6%	21.9%	16.0%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	62.9%	44.0%	87.6%	21.9%	16.0%
2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:00	62.9%	44.0%	87.6%	21.9%	16.0%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	62.9%	44.0%	87.6%	21.9%	16.0%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	62.9%	44.0%	87.6%	21.9%	16.0%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	62.9%	19.6%	83.7%	21.9%	16.0%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	62.9%	19.6%	83.7%	21.9%	16.0%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	62.9%	19.6%	83.7%	21.9%	16.0%
2026-10-17T13:47:47+00:00	45.8%	19.6%	83.7%	21.9%	16.0%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	45.8%	19.6%	83.6%	21.9%	16.2%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	45.8%	21.8%	83.6%	21.9%	16.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	45.8%	21.8%	83.6%	21.9%	16.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	45.8%	21.8%	70.1%	21.9%	16.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	45.8%	21.8%	70.1%	21.9%	16.2%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	45.8%	21.8%	70.1%	21.9%	16.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	45.8%	21.8%	70.1%	21.9%	16.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	45.2%	21.8%	70.1%	28.8%	25.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	45.2%	21.8%	70.1%	28.8%	25.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	45.2%	21.8%	70.1%	28.8%	25.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	45.2%	21.8%	70.1%	28.8%	25.0%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	45.2%	21.8%	57.8%	28.8%	25.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	45.2%	21.8%	57.8%	28.8%	25.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	45.2%	21.8%	57.8%	28.8%	25.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:43+00:00	45.2%	21.8%	57.8%	28.8%	25.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	39.7%	21.8%	57.8%	28.8%	25.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	39.7%	21.8%	57.8%	28.8%	25.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	39.7%	21.8%	57.8%	28.8%	25.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	58%	64.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	64.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	62.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	59.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	25%	56.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	60.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261024-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗