daily prop · Buffalo, NY · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Sat Oct 24

Buffalo runs hot-for-here: 70°F+ · Sat Oct 24

2¢

american +6073 · decimal 61.73

on the tape

70°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 70°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		25¢
aifs		13¢
icon		6¢
nbm		5¢
ndfd		2¢
hres		1¢
eps		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

52–53°F1¢

54–55°F3¢

56–57°F8¢

58–59°F14¢

60–61°F20¢

62–63°F22¢

64–65°F17¢

66–67°F10¢

68–69°F4¢

70–71°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KBUF-20261024-TMAX-GE70 · opened 2026-10-17T07:44:01+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape