KBUF / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 13:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

25%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 12.6¢Risks 12.60u

EPSNO 87.4¢Risks 87.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +87.40u · EPS −87.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:01+00:00	23.8%	7.3%	52.2%	4.4%	5.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	23.8%	7.3%	52.2%	4.4%	5.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:00	23.8%	7.3%	52.2%	4.4%	5.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	23.8%	7.3%	52.2%	4.4%	5.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	23.8%	7.3%	52.2%	4.4%	5.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	23.8%	1.1%	42.2%	4.4%	5.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	23.8%	1.1%	42.2%	4.4%	5.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	23.8%	1.1%	42.2%	4.4%	5.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:47+00:00	12.6%	1.1%	42.2%	4.4%	5.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	12.6%	1.1%	42.2%	4.4%	5.6%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	12.6%	1.2%	42.2%	4.4%	5.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	12.6%	1.2%	42.2%	4.4%	5.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	12.6%	1.2%	25.9%	4.4%	5.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	12.6%	1.2%	25.9%	4.4%	5.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	12.6%	1.2%	25.9%	4.4%	5.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	12.6%	1.2%	25.9%	4.4%	5.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	12.2%	1.2%	25.9%	6.8%	10.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	12.2%	1.2%	25.9%	6.8%	10.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	12.2%	1.2%	25.9%	6.8%	10.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	12.2%	1.2%	25.9%	6.8%	10.1%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	12.2%	1.2%	16.4%	6.8%	10.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	12.2%	1.2%	16.4%	6.8%	10.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	12.2%	1.2%	16.4%	6.8%	10.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:43+00:00	12.2%	1.2%	16.4%	6.8%	10.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	9.6%	1.2%	16.4%	6.8%	10.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	9.6%	1.2%	16.4%	6.8%	10.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	9.6%	1.2%	16.4%	6.8%	10.1%
2026-10-18T04:13:43+00:00	9.6%	1.2%	16.4%	6.8%	10.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	9.6%	1.2%	16.9%	6.8%	10.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	9.6%	1.2%	16.9%	6.8%	10.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	9.6%	1.2%	16.9%	6.8%	10.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	9.6%	1.2%	16.9%	6.8%	10.1%
2026-10-18T08:00:52+00:00	10.1%	1.2%	16.9%	1.7%	4.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	10.1%	1.2%	16.9%	1.7%	4.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	10.1%	1.2%	16.9%	1.7%	4.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	10.1%	1.2%	16.9%	1.7%	4.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:34+00:00	10.1%	0.5%	15.8%	1.7%	4.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	10.1%	0.5%	15.8%	1.7%	4.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	10.1%	0.5%	15.8%	1.7%	4.8%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	10.1%	0.5%	15.8%	1.7%	4.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	8.3%	0.6%	15.7%	1.7%	4.8%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	8.3%	0.6%	15.7%	1.7%	4.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	8.3%	0.4%	15.7%	1.7%	4.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:47+00:00	8.3%	0.4%	15.7%	1.7%	4.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	8.3%	0.4%	16.2%	1.7%	4.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:17+00:00	8.3%	0.4%	16.2%	1.7%	4.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	8.3%	0.4%	16.2%	1.7%	4.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	11.5%	0.4%	16.2%	3.8%	26.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	11.5%	0.4%	16.2%	3.8%	26.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	11.5%	0.4%	16.2%	3.8%	26.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	11.5%	0.4%	16.2%	3.8%	26.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	11.5%	0.4%	16.2%	3.8%	26.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:38+00:00	11.5%	0.4%	24.0%	3.8%	26.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	11.5%	0.4%	24.0%	3.8%	26.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	11.5%	0.4%	24.0%	3.8%	26.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00	13.8%	0.4%	24.0%	3.8%	26.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	13.8%	0.4%	24.0%	3.8%	26.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00	13.8%	0.4%	24.0%	3.8%	26.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	13.8%	0.4%	24.0%	3.8%	26.9%
2026-10-19T04:30:25+00:00	13.8%	0.4%	24.0%	3.8%	26.9%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00	13.8%	0.4%	31.1%	3.8%	26.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	13.8%	0.4%	31.1%	3.8%	26.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	13.8%	0.4%	31.1%	3.8%	26.9%
2026-10-19T07:32:40+00:00	13.8%	0.4%	31.1%	1.2%	8.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	13.8%	0.4%	31.1%	1.2%	8.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	13.8%	0.4%	31.1%	1.2%	8.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	13.8%	0.4%	31.1%	1.2%	8.2%
2026-10-19T10:34:57+00:00	13.8%	0.4%	31.1%	1.2%	8.2%
2026-10-19T11:20:39+00:00	13.8%	0.3%	52.9%	1.2%	8.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00	13.8%	0.3%	52.9%	1.2%	8.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	13.8%	0.3%	52.9%	1.2%	8.2%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	6.2%	0.3%	52.9%	1.2%	8.2%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	6.2%	0.3%	52.9%	1.2%	8.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:18+00:00	6.2%	0.4%	52.9%	1.2%	8.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	6.2%	0.4%	52.9%	1.2%	8.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	6.2%	0.4%	52.9%	1.2%	8.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	6.2%	0.4%	30.5%	1.2%	8.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	6.2%	0.4%	30.5%	1.2%	8.2%
2026-10-19T18:59:49+00:00	6.2%	0.4%	30.5%	1.2%	8.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	7.5%	0.4%	30.5%	0.4%	7.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	7.5%	0.4%	30.5%	0.4%	7.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	7.5%	0.4%	30.5%	0.4%	7.7%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00	7.5%	0.4%	30.5%	0.4%	7.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	7.5%	0.4%	30.5%	0.4%	7.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	7.5%	0.4%	35.8%	0.4%	7.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	7.5%	0.4%	35.8%	0.4%	7.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:34+00:00	7.5%	0.4%	35.8%	0.4%	7.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	10.8%	0.4%	35.8%	0.4%	7.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	10.8%	0.4%	35.8%	0.4%	7.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	10.8%	0.4%	35.8%	0.4%	7.7%
2026-10-20T04:04:00+00:00	10.8%	0.4%	35.8%	0.4%	7.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	10.8%	0.4%	35.8%	0.4%	7.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	10.8%	0.4%	30.5%	0.4%	7.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	10.8%	0.4%	30.5%	0.4%	7.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	10.8%	0.4%	30.5%	0.4%	7.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	13.3%	0.4%	30.5%	0.4%	5.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	13.3%	0.4%	30.5%	0.4%	5.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:17+00:00	13.3%	0.4%	30.5%	0.4%	5.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	13.3%	0.4%	30.5%	0.4%	5.5%
2026-10-20T10:53:04+00:00	13.3%	0.1%	25.1%	1.0%	5.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	13.3%	0.1%	25.1%	1.0%	5.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	13.3%	0.1%	25.1%	1.0%	5.5%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	13.3%	0.1%	25.1%	1.0%	5.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	25%	67.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	13%	64.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	6%	61.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	5%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	1%	57.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	58.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261024-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo runs hot-for-here: 70°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗