— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
91¢
aifs
82¢
icon
74¢
nbm
55¢
hres
46¢
eps
28¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F3¢
60–61°F8¢
62–63°F14¢
64–65°F20¢
66–67°F21¢
68–69°F17¢
70–71°F10¢
72–73°F4¢
74–75°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBUF-20261025-TMAX-GE63 · opened 2026-10-18T11:02:34+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape