KBUF / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

82%

74%

46%

28%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.7¢Risks 59.70u

EPSNO 40.3¢Risks 40.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.30u · EPS −40.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:34+00:00	72.3%	34.3%	83.1%	33.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	72.3%	34.3%	83.1%	33.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	72.3%	34.3%	83.1%	33.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	72.3%	34.3%	83.1%	33.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	79.8%	34.3%	83.1%	33.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	79.8%	34.3%	83.1%	33.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	79.8%	28.2%	83.1%	33.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T16:26:47+00:00	79.8%	28.2%	83.1%	33.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	79.8%	28.2%	87.2%	33.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:17+00:00	79.8%	28.2%	87.2%	33.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	79.8%	28.2%	87.2%	33.2%	4.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	80.3%	28.2%	87.2%	46.3%	73.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	80.3%	28.2%	87.2%	46.3%	73.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	80.3%	28.2%	87.2%	46.3%	73.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	80.3%	28.2%	87.2%	46.3%	73.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	80.3%	28.2%	87.2%	46.3%	73.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:38+00:00	80.3%	28.2%	91.2%	46.3%	73.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	80.3%	28.2%	91.2%	46.3%	73.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	80.3%	28.2%	91.2%	46.3%	73.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00	82.2%	28.2%	91.2%	46.3%	73.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	82.2%	28.2%	91.2%	46.3%	73.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00	82.2%	28.2%	91.2%	46.3%	73.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	82.2%	28.2%	91.2%	46.3%	73.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	69.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	82%	67.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	74%	68.9°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	63.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	61.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	60.1°F	4.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261025-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 63°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗