— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
84¢
icon
74¢
eps
70¢
hres
57¢
nbm
55¢
aifs
40¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
54–55°F1¢
56–57°F3¢
58–59°F6¢
60–61°F12¢
62–63°F17¢
64–65°F19¢
66–67°F17¢
68–69°F12¢
70–71°F7¢
72–73°F3¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,316 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.851 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBUF-20261026-TMAX-GE62 · opened 2026-10-19T11:20:39+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape