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KBUF / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Buffalo, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
84%
ICON
74%
EPS
70%
HRES
57%
AIFS
40%
Consensus
66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 61.7¢Risks 61.70u
VS
AIFSNO 38.3¢Risks 38.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.30u · AIFS −38.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 65.5% · 2026-10-19T11:20:39+00:00AIFS Single: 65.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00AIFS Single: 65.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00AIFS Single: 69.3% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00AIFS Single: 69.3% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00AIFS Single: 69.3% · 2026-10-19T15:13:18+00:00AIFS Single: 69.3% · 2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00AIFS Single: 69.3% · 2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00AIFS Single: 69.3% · 2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00AIFS Single: 69.3% · 2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00AIFS Single: 69.3% · 2026-10-19T18:59:49+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00AIFS Single: 77.3% · 2026-10-20T01:02:34+00:00AIFS Single: 39.7% · 2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00AIFS Single: 39.7% · 2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00AIFS Single: 39.7% · 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.5% · 2026-10-19T11:20:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.5% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.5% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.5% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.5% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-10-19T15:13:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-10-19T18:59:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-10-20T01:02:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.7% · 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.8% · 2026-10-19T11:20:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.8% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.9% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.9% · 2026-10-19T15:13:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.9% · 2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.9% · 2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-19T18:59:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.7% · 2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.7% · 2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.7% · 2026-10-20T01:02:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.7% · 2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.7% · 2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.7% · 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T11:20:39+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T15:13:18+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T18:59:49+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-20T01:02:34+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00IFS HRES: 56.8% · 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00ICON: 31.2% · 2026-10-19T11:20:39+00:00ICON: 31.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00ICON: 31.2% · 2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00ICON: 31.2% · 2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T15:13:18+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T18:59:49+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-10-20T01:02:34+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00ICON: 74.5% · 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:0010-19 11:2010-19 19:4510-20 03:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:20:39+00:0065.5%67.5%89.8%56.8%31.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:0065.5%67.5%89.8%56.8%31.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:0065.5%67.5%89.8%56.8%31.2%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:0069.3%67.5%89.8%56.8%31.2%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:0069.3%67.5%89.9%56.8%31.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:18+00:0069.3%69.7%89.9%56.8%31.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:0069.3%69.7%89.9%56.8%31.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:0069.3%69.7%89.9%56.8%31.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:0069.3%69.7%72.2%56.8%31.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:0069.3%69.7%72.2%56.8%31.3%
2026-10-19T18:59:49+00:0069.3%69.7%72.2%56.8%31.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:0077.3%69.7%72.2%56.8%74.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:0077.3%69.7%72.2%56.8%74.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:0077.3%69.7%72.2%56.8%74.5%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:0077.3%69.7%72.2%56.8%74.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:0077.3%69.7%72.2%56.8%74.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:0077.3%69.7%83.7%56.8%74.5%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:0077.3%69.7%83.7%56.8%74.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:34+00:0077.3%69.7%83.7%56.8%74.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:0039.7%69.7%83.7%56.8%74.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:0039.7%69.7%83.7%56.8%74.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:0039.7%69.7%83.7%56.8%74.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 284%66.5°F5.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
ICON74%68.1°F10.0°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble70%63.2°F3.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES57%62.6°F6.4°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
National Blend55%62.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
AIFS Single40%60.0°F5.7°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBUF

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBUF-20261026-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Buffalo high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗