daily prop · Baltimore, MD · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Wed Oct 21

Baltimore runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Wed Oct 21

2¢

american +5487 · decimal 55.87

on the tape

77°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 77°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		27¢
aifs		26¢
icon		13¢
hres		8¢
ndfd		4¢
eps		0¢
nbm		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

60–61°F1¢

62–63°F7¢

64–65°F19¢

66–67°F30¢

68–69°F26¢

70–71°F12¢

72–73°F3¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KBWI-20261021-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-14T10:32:08+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape