KBWI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 19:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

27%

26%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 13.9¢Risks 13.90u

EPSNO 86.1¢Risks 86.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +86.10u · EPS −86.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:08+00:00	27.9%	0.9%	45.6%	20.2%	17.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:31+00:00	27.9%	0.2%	26.0%	20.2%	17.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:10+00:00	27.9%	0.2%	26.0%	20.2%	17.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	27.9%	0.2%	26.0%	20.2%	17.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	27.9%	0.2%	26.0%	20.2%	17.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	27.9%	0.2%	26.2%	20.2%	17.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:00+00:00	27.9%	0.3%	26.2%	20.2%	17.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	27.9%	0.3%	26.2%	20.2%	17.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	27.9%	0.3%	26.2%	20.2%	17.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	27.9%	0.3%	20.7%	20.2%	17.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	27.9%	0.3%	20.7%	20.2%	17.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	27.9%	0.3%	20.7%	20.2%	17.7%
2026-10-15T04:01:47+00:00	13.5%	0.3%	17.9%	3.0%	35.1%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	13.5%	0.3%	17.9%	3.0%	35.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	25.8%	0.3%	17.3%	7.9%	12.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	25.8%	0.3%	17.3%	7.9%	12.7%
2026-10-15T15:33:39+00:00	25.8%	0.4%	17.3%	7.9%	12.7%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	25.8%	0.4%	17.3%	7.9%	12.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	25.8%	0.4%	27.4%	7.9%	12.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:33+00:00	25.8%	0.4%	27.4%	7.9%	12.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:52+00:00	25.8%	0.4%	27.4%	7.9%	12.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	25.8%	0.4%	27.4%	7.9%	12.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	27%	73.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	26%	73.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	13%	68.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	67.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	67.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗