— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
100¢
aifs
98¢
eps
87¢
icon
83¢
hres
75¢
nbm
71¢
ndfd
54¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F3¢
64–65°F12¢
66–67°F26¢
68–69°F31¢
70–71°F20¢
72–73°F7¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KBWI-20261022-TMAX-GE62 · opened 2026-10-17T04:40:54+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape