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KBWI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST92%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
>99%
AIFS
98%
EPS
87%
ICON
83%
HRES
75%
Consensus
92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 87.3¢Risks 87.35u
VS
HRESNO 12.7¢Risks 12.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +12.65u · HRES −12.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 71.7% · 2026-10-17T04:40:54+00:00AIFS Single: 71.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:05+00:00AIFS Single: 71.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00AIFS Single: 71.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00AIFS Single: 95.9% · 2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00AIFS Single: 95.9% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00AIFS Single: 95.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00AIFS Single: 95.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00AIFS Single: 95.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00AIFS Single: 95.9% · 2026-10-17T11:31:59+00:00AIFS Single: 95.9% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00AIFS Single: 95.9% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00AIFS Single: 98.3% · 2026-10-17T13:47:46+00:00AIFS Single: 98.3% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.7% · 2026-10-17T04:40:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.7% · 2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 71.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.6% · 2026-10-17T11:31:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.6% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.6% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.6% · 2026-10-17T13:47:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 86.6% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.3% · 2026-10-17T04:40:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.3% · 2026-10-17T05:28:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T11:31:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 99.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00IFS HRES: 77.1% · 2026-10-17T04:40:54+00:00IFS HRES: 77.1% · 2026-10-17T05:28:05+00:00IFS HRES: 77.1% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00IFS HRES: 77.1% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00IFS HRES: 75.0% · 2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00IFS HRES: 75.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00IFS HRES: 75.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00IFS HRES: 75.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00IFS HRES: 75.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS HRES: 75.0% · 2026-10-17T11:31:59+00:00IFS HRES: 75.0% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00IFS HRES: 75.0% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00IFS HRES: 75.0% · 2026-10-17T13:47:46+00:00IFS HRES: 75.0% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-17T04:40:54+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-17T05:28:05+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-10-17T11:31:59+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00ICON: 83.6% · 2026-10-17T13:47:46+00:00ICON: 83.2% · 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:0010-17 04:4010-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:40:54+00:0071.7%71.7%99.3%77.1%76.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:05+00:0071.7%71.7%99.3%77.1%76.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:0071.7%71.7%98.8%77.1%76.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:0071.7%71.7%98.8%77.1%76.3%
2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:0095.9%71.7%98.8%75.0%83.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:0095.9%71.7%98.8%75.0%83.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:0095.9%71.7%98.8%75.0%83.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:0095.9%71.7%98.8%75.0%83.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:0095.9%71.7%98.8%75.0%83.6%
2026-10-17T11:31:59+00:0095.9%86.6%99.7%75.0%83.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:0095.9%86.6%99.7%75.0%83.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:0095.9%86.6%99.7%75.0%83.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:46+00:0098.3%86.6%99.7%75.0%83.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:0098.3%86.6%99.7%75.0%83.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2>99%72.6°F4.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single98%72.0°F5.0°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble87%65.6°F3.7°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON83%67.4°F6.1°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES75%65.4°F5.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend71%64.0°F4.4°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%62.0°F5.2°F2026-10-17 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261022-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 62°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗