— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
57¢
ndfd
54¢
aifs
41¢
hres
41¢
wn2
34¢
nbm
32¢
eps
14¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F2¢
64–65°F5¢
66–67°F11¢
68–69°F18¢
70–71°F21¢
72–73°F19¢
74–75°F13¢
76–77°F6¢
78–79°F2¢
80–81°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCHS-20261019-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-14T02:59:32+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape