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KCHS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
57%
AIFS
41%
HRES
41%
WN2
34%
EPS
14%
Consensus
35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 35.4¢Risks 35.45u
VS
EPSNO 64.5¢Risks 64.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +64.55u · EPS −64.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 42.5% · 2026-10-14T02:59:32+00:00AIFS Single: 42.5% · 2026-10-14T03:45:27+00:00AIFS Single: 42.5% · 2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00AIFS Single: 42.5% · 2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00AIFS Single: 42.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00AIFS Single: 42.5% · 2026-10-14T06:46:12+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-14T08:16:34+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-14T10:32:26+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-14T11:20:42+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00AIFS Single: 40.4% · 2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00AIFS Single: 41.2% · 2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.9% · 2026-10-14T02:59:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.9% · 2026-10-14T03:45:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.9% · 2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.9% · 2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.9% · 2026-10-14T06:46:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.9% · 2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.9% · 2026-10-14T08:16:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.9% · 2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.9% · 2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 32.9% · 2026-10-14T10:32:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.2% · 2026-10-14T11:20:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.2% · 2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.2% · 2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.2% · 2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 14.2% · 2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-14T02:59:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-14T03:45:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-14T06:46:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-14T08:16:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.2% · 2026-10-14T10:32:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-14T11:20:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 34.0% · 2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00IFS HRES: 57.3% · 2026-10-14T02:59:32+00:00IFS HRES: 57.3% · 2026-10-14T03:45:27+00:00IFS HRES: 57.3% · 2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00IFS HRES: 57.3% · 2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00IFS HRES: 57.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00IFS HRES: 57.3% · 2026-10-14T06:46:12+00:00IFS HRES: 57.3% · 2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00IFS HRES: 57.3% · 2026-10-14T08:16:34+00:00IFS HRES: 57.3% · 2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00IFS HRES: 57.3% · 2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00IFS HRES: 41.1% · 2026-10-14T10:32:26+00:00IFS HRES: 41.1% · 2026-10-14T11:20:42+00:00IFS HRES: 41.1% · 2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00IFS HRES: 41.1% · 2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00IFS HRES: 41.1% · 2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00IFS HRES: 41.1% · 2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00ICON: 68.0% · 2026-10-14T02:59:32+00:00ICON: 68.0% · 2026-10-14T03:45:27+00:00ICON: 68.0% · 2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00ICON: 68.0% · 2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00ICON: 68.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00ICON: 68.0% · 2026-10-14T06:46:12+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-14T08:16:34+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-14T10:32:26+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-14T11:20:42+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00ICON: 56.7% · 2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:0010-14 02:5910-14 09:0110-14 14:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T02:59:32+00:0042.5%32.9%72.2%57.3%68.0%
2026-10-14T03:45:27+00:0042.5%32.9%72.2%57.3%68.0%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:0042.5%32.9%72.2%57.3%68.0%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:0042.5%32.9%72.2%57.3%68.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:0042.5%32.9%72.2%57.3%68.0%
2026-10-14T06:46:12+00:0042.5%32.9%72.2%57.3%68.0%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:0040.4%32.9%72.2%57.3%56.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:34+00:0040.4%32.9%72.2%57.3%56.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:0040.4%32.9%72.2%57.3%56.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:0040.4%32.9%72.2%57.3%56.7%
2026-10-14T10:32:26+00:0040.4%32.9%72.2%41.1%56.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:42+00:0040.4%14.2%34.0%41.1%56.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:0040.4%14.2%34.0%41.1%56.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:0040.4%14.2%34.0%41.1%56.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:0041.2%14.2%34.0%41.1%56.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:0041.2%14.2%34.0%41.1%56.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON57%77.5°F5.9°F2026-10-14 00:000.3215
NWS forecast54%77.0°F5.2°F2026-10-14 02:000.2894
AIFS Single41%75.4°F5.0°F2026-10-14 06:000.1697
IFS HRES41%75.2°F5.8°F2026-10-14 00:000.1689
WeatherNext 234%74.8°F4.1°F2026-10-14 00:000.1156
National Blend32%75.0°F3.3°F2026-10-14 06:000.1056
IFS Ensemble14%72.0°F4.2°F2026-10-14 00:000.0202

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗