— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
75¢
wn2
65¢
ndfd
56¢
hres
25¢
rrfs
23¢
eps
18¢
icon
16¢
nbm
12¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
66–67°F1¢
68–69°F4¢
70–71°F16¢
72–73°F30¢
74–75°F29¢
76–77°F15¢
78–79°F4¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCHS-20261021-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-15T04:01:56+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape