KCHS / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

65%

25%

18%

16%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 45.2¢Risks 45.20u

ICONNO 54.8¢Risks 54.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +54.80u · ICON −54.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:01:56+00:00	72.1%	64.9%	81.5%	34.7%	69.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:52+00:00	72.1%	64.9%	81.5%	34.7%	69.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	72.1%	64.9%	82.6%	34.7%	69.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	72.1%	64.9%	82.6%	34.7%	69.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	72.1%	64.9%	82.6%	34.7%	69.3%
2026-10-15T07:49:17+00:00	38.3%	64.9%	82.6%	44.0%	56.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	38.3%	64.9%	82.6%	44.0%	56.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	38.3%	64.9%	82.6%	44.0%	56.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00	38.3%	64.9%	82.6%	44.0%	56.7%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	38.3%	64.9%	82.6%	44.0%	56.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:11+00:00	38.3%	64.9%	78.6%	44.0%	56.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	38.3%	35.3%	78.6%	44.0%	56.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:11+00:00	38.3%	35.3%	78.6%	44.0%	56.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	76.0%	35.3%	78.6%	44.0%	56.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	76.0%	35.3%	78.6%	44.0%	56.7%
2026-10-15T15:33:53+00:00	76.0%	36.7%	78.6%	44.0%	56.7%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	76.0%	36.7%	78.6%	44.0%	56.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	76.0%	36.7%	83.2%	44.0%	56.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:38+00:00	76.0%	36.7%	83.2%	44.0%	56.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	76.0%	36.7%	83.2%	44.0%	56.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	76.0%	36.7%	83.2%	44.0%	56.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	74.2%	36.7%	83.2%	48.8%	73.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	74.2%	36.7%	83.2%	48.8%	73.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	74.2%	36.7%	83.2%	48.8%	73.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	74.2%	36.7%	83.2%	48.8%	73.7%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	74.2%	36.7%	75.3%	48.8%	73.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	74.2%	36.7%	75.3%	48.8%	73.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	74.2%	36.7%	75.3%	48.8%	73.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	77.7%	36.7%	75.3%	48.8%	73.7%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	77.7%	36.7%	75.3%	48.8%	73.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	77.7%	36.7%	75.3%	48.8%	73.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	77.7%	36.7%	75.3%	48.8%	73.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:22+00:00	69.8%	18.0%	69.7%	29.6%	15.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	69.8%	18.0%	69.7%	29.6%	15.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	69.8%	18.0%	69.7%	29.6%	15.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00	69.8%	18.0%	67.4%	29.6%	15.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	69.8%	18.0%	67.4%	29.6%	15.6%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	69.8%	18.0%	67.4%	29.6%	15.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00	70.7%	18.0%	67.4%	24.7%	15.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	70.7%	18.0%	67.4%	24.7%	15.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	70.7%	18.0%	67.4%	24.7%	15.6%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	70.7%	18.0%	67.4%	24.7%	15.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	70.7%	18.0%	67.4%	24.7%	15.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00	70.7%	18.0%	65.1%	24.7%	15.6%
2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00	70.7%	18.0%	65.1%	24.7%	15.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	70.7%	18.0%	65.1%	24.7%	15.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	74.8%	18.0%	65.1%	24.7%	15.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	74.8%	18.0%	65.1%	24.7%	15.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	74.8%	18.0%	65.1%	24.7%	15.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	75%	77.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	75.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	71.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	72.3°F	2.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	70.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261021-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 75°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗