— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
83¢
aifs
83¢
ndfd
56¢
hres
46¢
nbm
40¢
icon
33¢
eps
23¢
rrfs
20¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F2¢
70–71°F8¢
72–73°F22¢
74–75°F32¢
76–77°F24¢
78–79°F9¢
80–81°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,512 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.688 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCHS-20261022-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-15T11:39:11+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape