KCHS / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 20 · 17:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

83%

46%

33%

23%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.3¢Risks 53.30u

EPSNO 46.7¢Risks 46.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.70u · EPS −46.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T17:48:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T11:39:11+00:00	29.7%	66.9%	73.8%	38.2%	37.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	29.7%	52.7%	73.8%	38.2%	37.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:11+00:00	29.7%	52.7%	73.8%	38.2%	37.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	67.6%	52.7%	73.6%	38.3%	37.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	67.6%	52.7%	73.6%	38.3%	37.7%
2026-10-15T15:33:53+00:00	67.6%	54.1%	73.6%	38.3%	37.7%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	67.6%	54.1%	73.6%	38.3%	37.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	67.6%	54.1%	72.3%	38.3%	37.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:38+00:00	67.6%	54.1%	72.3%	38.3%	37.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	67.6%	54.1%	72.3%	38.3%	37.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	67.6%	54.1%	72.3%	38.3%	37.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	50.7%	54.1%	72.3%	43.8%	63.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	50.7%	54.1%	72.3%	43.8%	63.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	50.7%	54.1%	72.3%	43.8%	63.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	50.7%	54.1%	72.3%	43.8%	63.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	50.7%	54.1%	62.4%	43.8%	63.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	50.7%	54.1%	62.4%	43.8%	63.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	50.7%	54.1%	62.4%	43.8%	63.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	80.5%	54.1%	62.4%	43.8%	63.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	80.5%	54.1%	62.4%	43.8%	63.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	80.5%	54.1%	62.4%	43.8%	63.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	80.5%	54.1%	62.4%	43.8%	63.4%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	80.5%	54.1%	62.4%	43.8%	63.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:24+00:00	80.5%	54.1%	66.8%	43.8%	63.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:52+00:00	80.5%	54.1%	66.8%	43.8%	63.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	80.5%	54.1%	66.8%	43.8%	63.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	26.4%	54.1%	66.8%	43.8%	79.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	26.4%	54.1%	66.8%	43.8%	79.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	26.4%	54.1%	66.8%	43.8%	79.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	26.4%	54.1%	66.8%	43.8%	79.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	26.4%	54.1%	66.8%	43.8%	79.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:11+00:00	26.4%	11.4%	65.0%	43.8%	79.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	26.4%	11.4%	65.0%	43.8%	79.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	26.4%	11.4%	65.0%	43.8%	79.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:09+00:00	79.3%	11.4%	65.0%	11.6%	79.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	79.2%	11.4%	65.0%	11.6%	80.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:18+00:00	79.2%	12.0%	65.0%	11.6%	80.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	79.2%	11.9%	65.0%	11.6%	80.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	79.2%	11.9%	65.0%	11.6%	80.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	79.2%	11.9%	72.6%	11.6%	80.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	79.2%	11.9%	72.6%	11.6%	80.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	79.2%	11.9%	72.6%	11.6%	80.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:55+00:00	80.8%	11.9%	72.6%	11.6%	82.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	80.8%	11.9%	72.6%	11.6%	82.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	80.8%	11.9%	72.6%	11.6%	82.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	80.8%	11.9%	72.6%	11.6%	82.6%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	80.8%	11.9%	72.6%	31.9%	82.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:22+00:00	80.8%	11.9%	82.1%	31.9%	82.6%
2026-10-17T00:08:59+00:00	80.8%	11.9%	82.1%	31.9%	82.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	80.8%	11.9%	82.1%	31.9%	82.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	85.4%	11.9%	82.1%	31.9%	82.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	85.4%	11.9%	82.1%	31.9%	82.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	85.4%	11.9%	82.1%	31.9%	82.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	85.4%	11.9%	82.1%	31.9%	82.6%
2026-10-20T15:31:40+00:00	83.3%	23.2%	86.4%	46.1%	32.7%
2026-10-20T16:17:58+00:00	83.3%	23.2%	86.4%	46.1%	32.7%
2026-10-20T17:03:14+00:00	82.7%	23.2%	83.4%	46.1%	32.7%
2026-10-20T17:48:36+00:00	82.7%	23.2%	83.4%	46.1%	32.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	83%	77.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	78.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	74.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	40%	74.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	33%	72.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	72.6°F	2.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗