— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
57¢
nbm
55¢
aifs
43¢
eps
41¢
wn2
38¢
icon
34¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F2¢
66–67°F6¢
68–69°F13¢
70–71°F20¢
72–73°F23¢
74–75°F18¢
76–77°F11¢
78–79°F4¢
80–81°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCHS-20261024-TMAX-GE74 · opened 2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape