KCHS / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

43%

41%

38%

34%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 45.4¢Risks 45.40u

ICONNO 54.6¢Risks 54.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +54.60u · ICON −54.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00	71.1%	43.6%	68.3%	28.3%	41.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	71.1%	43.6%	68.3%	28.3%	41.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:31+00:00	71.1%	43.6%	68.3%	28.3%	41.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	71.1%	43.6%	68.3%	28.3%	41.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	71.1%	43.6%	68.3%	28.3%	41.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	71.1%	38.2%	72.8%	28.3%	41.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	71.1%	38.2%	72.8%	28.3%	41.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	71.1%	38.2%	72.8%	28.3%	41.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:00	33.8%	38.2%	72.8%	28.3%	41.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	33.8%	38.2%	72.8%	28.3%	42.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:31+00:00	33.8%	40.8%	72.8%	28.3%	42.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	33.8%	40.8%	72.8%	28.3%	42.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	33.8%	40.8%	53.9%	28.3%	42.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	33.8%	40.8%	53.9%	28.3%	42.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	33.8%	40.8%	53.9%	28.3%	42.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	33.8%	40.8%	53.9%	28.3%	42.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	26.6%	40.8%	53.9%	56.8%	34.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	26.6%	40.8%	53.9%	56.8%	34.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	26.6%	40.8%	53.9%	56.8%	34.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	26.6%	40.8%	53.9%	56.8%	34.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	26.6%	40.8%	37.7%	56.8%	34.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	26.6%	40.8%	37.7%	56.8%	34.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	26.6%	40.8%	37.7%	56.8%	34.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	26.6%	40.8%	37.7%	56.8%	34.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	43.1%	40.8%	37.7%	56.8%	34.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	43.1%	40.8%	37.7%	56.8%	34.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	43.1%	40.8%	37.7%	56.8%	34.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	57%	74.6°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	43%	72.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	72.8°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	38%	71.9°F	5.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	34%	69.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261024-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 74°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗