— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
91¢
aifs
84¢
icon
66¢
hres
64¢
nbm
55¢
ndfd
54¢
eps
45¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F2¢
68–69°F6¢
70–71°F12¢
72–73°F18¢
74–75°F21¢
76–77°F18¢
78–79°F12¢
80–81°F6¢
82–83°F2¢
84–85°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,365 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.476 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCHS-20261025-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-18T08:00:59+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape