KCHS / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 20 · 17:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

84%

66%

64%

45%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.3¢Risks 68.30u

EPSNO 31.7¢Risks 31.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.70u · EPS −31.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T17:48:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:00:59+00:00	41.1%	41.8%	55.1%	24.8%	11.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	41.1%	41.8%	55.1%	24.8%	11.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	41.1%	41.8%	55.1%	24.8%	11.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	41.1%	41.8%	55.1%	24.8%	11.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:31+00:00	37.1%	24.9%	65.2%	65.1%	55.6%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	37.1%	24.9%	64.5%	65.1%	55.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	37.1%	24.9%	64.5%	65.1%	55.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	37.1%	24.9%	64.5%	65.1%	55.6%
2026-10-19T07:32:51+00:00	69.1%	24.9%	64.5%	40.4%	55.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	69.1%	24.9%	64.5%	40.4%	55.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	69.1%	24.9%	64.5%	40.4%	55.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	69.1%	24.9%	64.5%	40.4%	55.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:02+00:00	69.1%	24.9%	64.5%	40.4%	55.0%
2026-10-19T11:20:43+00:00	69.1%	24.1%	78.6%	40.4%	55.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:00	69.1%	24.1%	78.6%	40.4%	55.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	69.1%	24.1%	78.6%	40.4%	55.0%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	71.7%	24.1%	78.6%	40.4%	55.0%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	71.7%	24.1%	78.6%	40.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T15:13:22+00:00	71.7%	25.0%	78.6%	40.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	71.7%	25.0%	78.6%	40.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	71.7%	25.0%	78.6%	40.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00	71.7%	25.0%	82.1%	40.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	71.7%	25.0%	82.1%	40.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	71.7%	25.0%	82.1%	40.4%	54.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00	72.3%	25.0%	82.1%	41.6%	56.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	72.3%	25.0%	82.1%	41.6%	56.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	72.3%	25.0%	82.1%	41.6%	56.1%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	72.3%	25.0%	82.1%	41.6%	56.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	72.3%	25.0%	82.1%	41.6%	56.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00	72.3%	25.0%	84.8%	41.6%	56.1%
2026-10-20T00:16:43+00:00	72.3%	25.0%	84.8%	41.6%	56.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	72.3%	25.0%	84.8%	41.6%	56.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	76.5%	25.0%	84.8%	41.6%	56.1%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	76.5%	25.0%	84.8%	41.6%	56.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	76.5%	25.0%	84.8%	41.6%	56.1%
2026-10-20T04:04:15+00:00	76.5%	25.0%	84.8%	41.6%	56.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	76.5%	25.0%	84.8%	41.6%	56.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	76.5%	25.0%	85.8%	41.6%	56.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	76.5%	25.0%	85.8%	41.6%	56.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	76.5%	25.0%	85.8%	41.6%	56.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:53+00:00	85.8%	25.0%	85.8%	41.6%	65.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	85.8%	25.0%	85.8%	41.6%	65.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00	85.8%	25.0%	85.8%	41.6%	65.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	85.8%	25.0%	85.8%	41.6%	65.9%
2026-10-20T10:53:15+00:00	85.8%	45.2%	89.7%	63.5%	65.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	85.8%	45.2%	89.7%	63.5%	65.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	85.8%	45.2%	89.7%	63.5%	65.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	85.8%	45.2%	89.7%	63.5%	65.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00	85.9%	45.2%	89.8%	63.6%	65.9%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00	85.9%	45.2%	89.8%	63.6%	65.9%
2026-10-20T15:31:41+00:00	85.9%	45.2%	89.8%	63.6%	65.9%
2026-10-20T16:17:58+00:00	85.9%	45.2%	89.8%	63.6%	65.9%
2026-10-20T17:03:14+00:00	84.5%	45.2%	91.4%	63.6%	65.9%
2026-10-20T17:48:36+00:00	84.5%	45.2%	91.4%	63.6%	65.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	78.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	77.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	66%	75.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	74.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	73.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	45%	72.1°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261025-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗