— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
32¢
aifs
23¢
hres
20¢
icon
9¢
nbm
2¢
eps
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F4¢
72–73°F11¢
74–75°F21¢
76–77°F25¢
78–79°F21¢
80–81°F11¢
82–83°F4¢
84–85°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,437 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.597 vs climatology 8.737.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCHS-20261027-TMAX-GE83 · opened 2026-10-20T10:53:15+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape