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KCHS / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 17:48 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
32%
AIFS
23%
HRES
20%
ICON
9%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 16.1¢Risks 16.10u
VS
EPSNO 83.9¢Risks 83.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +83.90u · EPS −83.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:15+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-20T15:31:41+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-20T16:17:58+00:00AIFS Single: 22.6% · 2026-10-20T17:03:14+00:00AIFS Single: 22.6% · 2026-10-20T17:48:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T15:31:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T16:17:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T17:03:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-10-20T17:48:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.5% · 2026-10-20T10:53:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.4% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.4% · 2026-10-20T15:31:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.4% · 2026-10-20T16:17:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-20T17:03:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.9% · 2026-10-20T17:48:36+00:00IFS HRES: 20.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:15+00:00IFS HRES: 20.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS HRES: 20.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 20.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 20.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00IFS HRES: 20.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00IFS HRES: 20.1% · 2026-10-20T15:31:41+00:00IFS HRES: 20.1% · 2026-10-20T16:17:58+00:00IFS HRES: 20.1% · 2026-10-20T17:03:14+00:00IFS HRES: 20.1% · 2026-10-20T17:48:36+00:00ICON: 8.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:15+00:00ICON: 8.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00ICON: 8.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 8.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00ICON: 8.9% · 2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00ICON: 8.9% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00ICON: 8.9% · 2026-10-20T15:31:41+00:00ICON: 8.9% · 2026-10-20T16:17:58+00:00ICON: 8.9% · 2026-10-20T17:03:14+00:00ICON: 8.9% · 2026-10-20T17:48:36+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 14:4610-20 17:48
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T17:48:36+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:15+00:0026.5%0.3%28.5%20.1%8.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:0026.5%0.3%28.5%20.1%8.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:0026.5%0.3%28.5%20.1%8.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0026.5%0.3%28.5%20.1%8.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:0026.5%0.3%28.4%20.1%8.9%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:0026.5%0.3%28.4%20.1%8.9%
2026-10-20T15:31:41+00:0026.5%0.3%28.4%20.1%8.9%
2026-10-20T16:17:58+00:0026.5%0.3%28.4%20.1%8.9%
2026-10-20T17:03:14+00:0022.6%0.3%31.9%20.1%8.9%
2026-10-20T17:48:36+00:0022.6%0.3%31.9%20.1%8.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 232%80.1°F5.1°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
AIFS Single23%78.2°F5.7°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES20%77.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON9%69.0°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend2%77.0°F2.6°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%75.0°F2.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261027-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Charleston runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗