— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
79¢
wn2
78¢
eps
58¢
ndfd
56¢
icon
42¢
nbm
41¢
hres
34¢
rrfs
10¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F8¢
62–63°F21¢
64–65°F31¢
66–67°F25¢
68–69°F11¢
70–71°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KCLE-20261021-TMAX-GE64 · opened 2026-10-19T04:30:59+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape