KCLE / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

78%

58%

42%

34%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.6¢Risks 56.60u

HRESNO 43.4¢Risks 43.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.40u · HRES −43.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:59+00:00	59.3%	61.2%	65.0%	25.1%	40.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:05+00:00	59.3%	61.2%	65.0%	25.1%	40.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	59.3%	61.2%	65.0%	25.1%	40.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	59.3%	61.2%	65.0%	25.1%	40.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:17+00:00	65.3%	61.2%	65.0%	29.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	65.3%	61.2%	65.0%	29.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	65.3%	61.2%	65.0%	29.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00	65.3%	61.2%	65.0%	29.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:16+00:00	65.3%	61.2%	65.0%	29.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T11:20:58+00:00	65.3%	55.1%	79.9%	29.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00	65.3%	55.1%	79.9%	29.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	65.3%	55.1%	79.9%	29.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	67.1%	55.1%	79.9%	29.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	67.2%	55.1%	79.9%	29.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T15:13:36+00:00	67.2%	57.7%	79.9%	29.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	67.2%	57.7%	79.9%	29.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T16:44:17+00:00	67.2%	57.7%	79.9%	29.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	67.2%	57.7%	75.1%	29.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	67.2%	57.7%	75.1%	29.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T19:00:03+00:00	67.2%	57.7%	75.1%	29.6%	47.8%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	70.7%	57.7%	75.1%	33.9%	42.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	70.7%	57.7%	75.1%	33.9%	42.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	70.7%	57.7%	75.1%	33.9%	42.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	70.7%	57.7%	75.1%	33.9%	42.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:15+00:00	70.7%	57.7%	75.1%	33.9%	42.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	70.7%	57.7%	78.1%	33.9%	42.2%
2026-10-20T00:16:54+00:00	70.7%	57.7%	78.1%	33.9%	42.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	70.7%	57.7%	78.1%	33.9%	42.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	79.3%	57.7%	78.1%	33.9%	42.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	79.3%	57.7%	78.1%	33.9%	42.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:04+00:00	79.3%	57.7%	78.1%	33.9%	42.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	79%	66.8°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	65.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	64.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	42%	62.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	63.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	61.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261021-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗